Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

20 August 2009

Coloured Pencils for the Blind

Today the people of Afghanistan were called to elect a new President. This is the second time such an election takes place under the general rules of a 'democratic' system.

The first time, in October 2004, the incumbent Hamid Karzai (photo below, inspecting a guard of honour in Kabul) was elected President. He is hopeful to be elected for a second term, but he is not popular with everyone.

Karzai is a Pashtun (or Pathan) and son of a wealthy and influential tribal leader from the south of the country. With close to 40% of the population the Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan and have provided the ruling elite ever since the establishment of the first singular state called 'Afghanistan' in 1747. Their territories are predominantly in the south, and they also make up a significant minority in neighbouring Pakistan.

There are more than a dozen other distinctive nations and ethnic groups in Afghanistan, of which the Tajiks - with ca. 37% of the total population - are the largest (and the second-largest in the country). Their territories are all in the north, and over centuries there has been a balance of power between the southern Pashtuns and the northern Tajiks.
All other ethnic groups are much smaller and less well represented in the political structure and make-up of Afghanistan. The two most visible of these minorities are the Hazara and the Uzbeks, each with about 9% of the overall population.

Politics in Afghanistan is based on strict tribal loyalties and age-old alliances between leaders of various clans. Even though there have been political parties for some time, they too reflect only too clearly the tribal structure of the country. The idea of an 'Afghan nation' has not arrived yet in the high and rugged mountains that control the links between the North and South of Asia, as well as the links between the West (Iran) and the East (China) of the continent.

Since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1973, some Afghan politicians have tried to establish some form of nationalism, but it has never worked or lasted for long. All their efforts ended in even more tribal conflict, which is still the predominant situation in Afghanistan.

Only a complete fool like George W. Bush, with no idea of history and ethnic structures outside the USA, could ever even think of invading Afghanistan and hoping to control it. Many nations and military leaders have tried - and failed - in such enterprises before.
Even Alexander the Great, perhaps the best army commander of all times, failed in his effort to control the mountains of the area that is now Afghanistan. And he was wise enough to realise that and withdrew his forces gracefully, after having founded a city that bore his name.

During the 19th century Britain tried - and failed - twice to occupy and rule Afghanistan and took massive casualties in the process. One of their expeditions entered the country with 42,000 men, of which only one single officer - an army surgeon - returned alive to tell the tale of total defeat.
More recently the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan from the north - at Christmas 1979 - with more than 120,000 troops. After nine years of fierce and bloody guerrilla war that helped to bring the USSR to her knees and end her existence, the Russians withdrew again - with a very bloody nose and tails between their legs - in 1988.

It has always amazed me that no-one in the political and military leadership of the USA warned George W. Bush of the dangers any military action in and against Afghanistan would bring to the invading force. Especially since they should have known what was waiting for them, after they had supported massively - but in a covert operation - the Afghan Mujahiddin (freedom fighters) in their struggle against the Soviet occupation force.
Perhaps they did warn him, but Bush - in his usual combination of ignorance and self-importance - did not listen. He just made one of his arogant and bellicose statements and sent his troops into war against a people who have not been defeated by anyone in more than 3000 years.
Like a blinded bear he just walked into the unknown, into the largest bear trap on Earth.

This was in the Autumn of 2001, and ever since Afghanistan has been - once again - an occupied country. The difference is that the current occupiers - the USA, the UK, NATO and a mixed bag of smaller contingents from various countries - claim that they are there 'to establish Democracy' in Afghanistan.

For the people of Afghanistan that means nothing. They remember only too well that the USSR was there not so long ago in order 'to establish Socialism', another idea with no value or meaning for tradional Muslims who live on the technological level of the Middle Ages.


- more to follow -
(I have to get some sleep first, sorry)

30 May 2009

Fianna Fáil are likely to lose their Dublin MEP, while Labour Party could win two extra Seats

A new opinion poll, published in today's edition of The Irish Times, suggests that Fianna Fáil is in real danger of losing its European Parliament seat in Dublin.

It shows that public support for the Fianna Fáil MEP Eoin Ryan (left) has slipped by a further two points to now 9%, while his political arch rival, Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald (right), is currently down by three points since the last poll and stands on 11%.

However, the Socialist Party's leader and ex-TD Joe Higgins (right) has gained two points and stands now on 9%, level with Eoin Ryan.
With only six days left until election date and public anger growing, Higgins could cause an unexpected upset in the Dublin constituency by winning a seat. (And if he fails, his transfers will certainly help Mary Lou McDonald a lot more than Eoin Ryan.)

The MRBI poll also indicates that the Labour Party might have a realistic chance to gain two extra MEPs.

Senator Alan Kelly (left) in the South and Nessa Childers (right) in the East are believed to benefit from the ever growing national support for Labour. The poll suggests that they are both within reach to win a seat and thus triple the Labour Party's strength in the European Parliament. (At present, Dublin MEP Proinsias de Rossa is the sole representative of his party in Europe.)

A separate TNS-MRBI poll in yesterday's Irish Times showed Labour as the only party to make significant improvements since the last poll a fortnight ago.

I wonder if these latest poll results also indicate that the general mood of the Irish electorate is slowly shifting to the Left, and if this - on the long run - could break the stagnation in Ireland's domestic political system, which has been dominated for far too long by two right-of-centre parties: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The Emerald Islander

29 May 2009

Latest Poll shows Labour Party gaining Support

With just one week to go to the European and local elections, the latest national opinion poll indicates that Fianna Fáil is still on course for disastrous results on June 5th.

The TNS/MRBI poll, published in today's edition of The Irish Times, shows that the Labour Party is the only party with significant improvements since the last poll a fortnight ago.

If Fianna Fáil were hoping for a late surge in support as this election campaign enters its final week, there is no sign of it so far.
The poll shows the party's support at just 20%, down one point since the last poll two weeks ago. (see my entry of May 15th)

Fine Gael are down two points, to now 36% support. But they are still by far the biggest party, and 16 points ahead of their arch rivals.

As mentioned above, Labour are the only point gainers in this poll. They are up three points to 23%, which puts them nationally in second place, after Fine Gael and ahead of Fianna Fáil.

The Green Party, which is now not much more than the outdoors and gardening department of FF, stands unchanged at 3%. This indicates that their core support still exists, but that no-one else will touch them with a barge pole.

Sinn Féin have dropped one point and stand on 8%, while Independents 'and others' (which includes Libertas) are up one point to now 10%.

However, with separate questioning - focused only on the local elections - Independents 'and others' are getting 19%, almost twice their average national support.

This is no surprise, as the amount of independent candidates or smaller parties and groups (such as the Socialist Party, the Workers' Party, the Socialist Workers' Party and 'People before Profit') is very different from one constituency to the next.*
And it is of course in the nature of independent candidates that each one of them has a different personality and thus will appeal to the electorate in a different way.

Overall satisfaction with the Irish government is - surprisingly - up slightly, but by only two points to a still disastrous 12%. The vast majority of the Irish electorate - now 84% - remains dissatisfied with the government's shambolic performance.

Satisfaction with the Taoiseach is also up - by three points - but at 21% he still has the lowest satisfaction rating of all party leaders. (He is even beaten into last place by his coalition partner, as the Greens' leader John Gormley comes in on 25% support.)

Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore retains the nation's highest satisfaction rating, with now 49%, which is two points lower than his amazing 51% a fortnight ago.

The Emerald Islander


* For example: The Socialist Party and the Workers' Party are both nominally parties with a nation-wide attitude and ambition. And they both have members in different parts of the country.
However, regarding actual strong support and thus any chances for electoral success, the Socialist Party is limited to the northern half of Dublin (city and county), while the last - and currently only - Irish constituency with elected representatives from the Workers' Party (which was founded as a break-away group from the old Sinn Féin) is Waterford City.

17 May 2009

Are the Greens waking up after all?

The leader of Ireland's Green Party has declared that the 'Programme for Government' his party signed when going into coalition with Fianna Fáil in 2007 "needs to be renegotiated in the light of the collapse of the Economy".

John Gormley (left), who took over the party leadership from Trevor Sargent after the Greens joined Fianna Fáil, said that "the government has to re-examine its priorities, given the recent economic downturn".

I wonder if this is the same John Gormley who said only a week ago in a long interview with RTÉ Radio 1 that "within the next two years we should see a turnaround in the Economy". (see my entry of May 10th)
Can such strong optimism really disappear so quickly from a seasoned politician and minister? Or is there something - or someone - else that is changing John Gormley's mind?

It seems there is, and his name is Dan Boyle (right). The Green Party chairman, who was made a Senator and Deputy Leader of the Seanad (by Bertie Ahern) after losing his Dáil seat in Cork in the 2007 elections, has in recent weeks become a voice for change and reflection.
A late convert to reality, perhaps, but Dan Boyle is no fool. Many - in his party and outside - regard him as "the only Green politician who understands money", and over the years he has done a lot behind the scenes to make his party more efficient.
Nevertheless Boyle was also one of the 'realos' who supported the move into government and helped negotiate the coalition agreement. So it is quite significant that Dan Boyle now says: "It is time for the [Green] party to rethink the programme for government agreed with Fianna Fáil."

Looking for an Exit Strategy?

He states that there are "too many unresolved issues, policy errors that are not been admitted, and areas where responsibility has not been taken".
A number of government policies had been "disastrous", including "the light touch regulation of the financial sector and excessive salary arrangements in many areas including political life".
According to Senator Boyle, these policies had "not been Green Party policies", and the mistakes needed to be confronted.
Everything had "changed utterly" since the 'Programme for Government' had been agreed, and it was "a document now in need of review".

In a recent statement Boyle proposed that "the deal should be reviewed in the period after the June elections", adding that "it is now clear that the conduct and performance of the government will be the issues that dominates the local and European elections".

These remarks from the Green Party's chairman represent further distancing from Fianna Fáil as that party's ratings continue to plummet and are bound to be interpreted as a sign that the Greens are beginning to think in terms of an exit strategy.

I presume Senator Boyle has been out canvassing lately, and the reactions he got from local people on their doorsteps might well have opened his eyes and mind.
Even though he has not even a remote chance to win a seat, Corkman Boyle is the Green Party candidate for the European Parliament in the Southern constituency. He put a brave face on when he announced his candidacy a few months ago, but now reality is catching up with him.

The brave face has disappeared, at least from his campaign material. I just saw the first large election poster of him, tied to a lamp post not a hundred yards from my house. And I was quite surprised by what I saw. There is no smile, and not even the slightest bit of friendly expression. Boyle looks very grim, annoyed and grumpy*.
If it were not clear that it is an election poster, one might assume the photo depicts a man who suffers heavily from painful haemorrhoids and has just been told that he is at the bottom of a six-months waiting list for his operation.

"Brian Cowen is a real Pain in the Arse..."

Perhaps the nearly two years the Green Party has been sitting on the government benches now have indeed produced a number of severe political haemorrhoids for its members. At least one of the Green TDs (whose request not to be named here I respect) feels the pain every time he sits down in Leinster House.
"Bertie [Ahern] was quite bearable and always relaxed," he told me some weeks ago. "But Brian Cowen is a real pain in the arse, all the time and for everyone."

The same Green TD did not smile when I showed to him what I had written after the current government coalition was formed.
"It has often been observed that rats and other animals are jumping off sinking ships, seemingly guided by their survival instinct," I wrote in 2007. "But it must be the first time that a group of creatures is desperate to jump onto a sinking ship. This group was until now known as Ireland's Green Party. What it will be after their experience as ship mates of Fianna Fáil is anyone's guess."

Well, for a man who is not in the prophecy business, I seem to be able to see many things well ahead of most people and get quite a lot of them right before they happen.

Defection, Resignations and Disappointment

Ever since the Green Party entered government with Fianna Fáil, there has been a steady flow of support away from the party. Some of the people joined other parties, while the majority of disillusioned former Greens are now Independents, and some have given up politics for good.

Despite frequent denials from the Green Party head office, the ever growing list of resignations and defections must be a concern. It would be for me, if I were in their shoes.

Having neither a realistic chance to win a seat in the European Parliament this year**, nor any hope for success in the two Dublin by-elections for the Dáil, the Green Party must naturally concentrate most of their efforts for June 5th on the local elections.

Five years ago they managed to get 18 of their members elected to various county and city councils, particular in urban areas. But they have not made much of a difference locally. And since June 2007 they were forced to defend Fianna Fáil and the government, a task very few Green activists would ever have expected to see on their to-do list.

Three of the Green councillors (which is 1/6 of the party's local representatives) have resigned and left the party between August 2008 and January 2009. And in the build-up to the local and European elections many veteran candidates and activists decided not to stand or campaign for the Green Party this time. Some just left, while others - like Brendan McCann, the long-time Green Party candidate in Waterford City - remain nominally party members, but are no longer active.

The first Green representative to bail out after the party had joined Fianna Fáil in government was Nessa Childers (left), the daughter of Ireland's former President Erskine H. Childers. She had been elected (in Blackrock) to Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council in 2004. She resigned last August, apparently for 'personal reasons', but meanwhile re-appeared on the political scene as the Labour Party's candidate for the European Parliament in the Eastern constituency.

In January two of Ireland's best-known Green politicians below Oireachtas level resigned from the party within a week. First Councillor Chris O'Leary (right), the Greens' only representative on Cork City Council, left the party with heavy criticism of its national leadership.
A few days later Clontarf Councillor Bronwen Maher (left), the only Green member on Dublin City Council, followed suit. Ms Maher, a party member for 20 years and one of the Greens' most prominent local politicians, had been very critical and outspoken for some time, especially in the wake of the October Budget.
Both Maher and O'Leary are now campaigning as Independents.

Watching the Polls

Although several opinion polls published this year saw the Green Party relatively unscathed (while Fianna Fáil dropped from one historic low point to the next), the latest TNS-MRBI poll - published in the Irish Times on Friday (see my entry of May 15th) - has the Greens on only 3%, compared with up to 7% in earlier polls. This must be ringing alarm bells in the party's head office, and so it is not much of a surprise that prominent Green politicians like Dan Boyle and even party leader John Gormley begin to voice their concerns.

Will this change anything? And will there still be enough time for a 'renegotiation' of government policies and strategies?
Somehow I doubt it. Fianna Fáil is in complete denial of Ireland's political and economic reality, and thus - in my opinion - beyond repair or reform. Only a lengthy period in opposition could perhaps restore some of the old FF spirit and the traditional values that made the party strong.

This will of course not help the Green Party. Having nailed their own colours so firmly to the Fianna Fáil mast, the Greens are now as tarnished as their larger coalition partner and people treat them with the same anger and contempt.
Quite rightly so, I think, as they carried and supported every government policy and decision, no matter how wrong, unfair, incompetent or outright idiotic it was, since June 2007.
So they are as responsible for our national crisis and the economic recession as Fianna Fáil is. And they will be punished for it by the electorate.

A Chance of Survival?

If the Green Party is interested in surviving as a political entity, and wants to rescue at least some of its ideas, identity and policies, then the only way to do this is to jump ship and leave the current coalition government as soon as possible.
In that case the party would then have three more years to prove themselves in a new 'rainbow' coalition with Fine Gael and the Labour Party. And who knows, given that we are facing great global and environmental challenges, they might actually regain some of their old supporters and even find new ones.

But all this is purely hypothetical as long as the Greens stay in government with Fianna Fáil. All talks about thinking again and 'renegotiating' the coalition agreement are futile and will lead only to more anger and aggrevation. It is way too late to patch up the damaged ship of this coalition, as it is taking in massive amounts of water and sinking fast.

There is a time for maintenance and repairs, but that needs a vessel in still seaworthy condition. Once a ship is so seriously damaged that it is not more than a hopeless wreck, abandoning ship is the only sensible action for those who want to survive, or at least want to try to survive.

It will be interesting to observe what the Greens will do, if they are really beginning to wake up to reality, or if they are now as hopelessly damaged and irrational as their coalition partner.
I think that in the second half of June we might well get some answers to these questions.

The Emerald Islander


* On this poster Dan Boyle wears a blue tie, and the spot with the usual message "No. 1" is also coloured blue, on an otherwise brightly green background. Most people who see the poster might not think much of that, but as an image consultant I take notice of such details. In general, green and blue are opposite colours that do not combine well in most designs. So why would a professional graphic designer put them together on the same poster, unless the client wants it that way?
In Irish politics green and blue are of course also the colours of the two largest parties, green representing Fianna Fáil and blue Fine Gael. (That green is also the main colour of Sinn Féin and - obviously - of the Green Party is of less signifiance here.)
I wonder if Dan Boyle's choice of colours for the election poster is a first subtle message that his party might be open to suggestions or offers from Fine Gael. If the Greens would switch allegiance, the current government would fall and Fine Gael's leader Enda Kenny could be Taoiseach. We had such a situation when the Labour Party left its coalition with Fianna Fáil in 1994 and formed a new coalition government with Fine Gael and the small Democratic Left party (which has meanwhile been absorbed into the Labour Party).
As political campaigning is a very sophisticated business these days, it would surprise me if Dan Boyle's choice of tie and the use of blue for a prominent spot on his main election poster were purely accidental.

** The one and only Green MEP Ireland ever had was Patricia McKenna, who held a Dublin seat from 1994 to 2004. She was a strong opponent and critic of the Green's partnership with Fianna Fáil as well and fought against it inside the party for nearly two years.
Having realised that the Green Party is seriously damaged, probably beyond repair, she recently ended her membership and is now standing in Dublin as an independent candidate for the European Parliament. (see my entry of May 11th)

16 May 2009

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could lose MEP

Following yesterday's amazing national opinion poll (for details see yesterday's entry below), which gives Fine Gael a commanding lead over Fianna Fáil and lists Eamon Gilmore as the most popular party leader in Ireland, The Irish Times is turning the spotlight on the up-coming European elections.

In today's edition the paper publishes another TNS/MRBI poll, this time for the four European constituencies in Ireland, and the first one in this election campaign.
The big surprise is that - according to this poll - both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are apparently "in danger of losing one MEP" on June 5th.

The poll identifies the East constituency as the 'danger zone' for Fine Gael, while Fianna Fáil is in a tight fight with Sinn Féin in Dublin.

In the East, where the veteran MEP Avril Doyle is not standing for re-election, the second outgoing Fine Gael MEP Mairead McGuinness (right) - who was Doyle's surprise running mate five years ago - is rated in the poll on 33% and thus well ahead of her fellow 'blueshirt' John Paul Phelan, who is on 9%.
Unless votes between the two Fine Gael candidates are split in a more equal ratio, the second Fine Gael seat in the East could be lost to the Labour Party's Nessa Childers, daughter of former President Erskine Childers (and until very recently a County Councillor for the Green Party). Fianna Fáil's MEP Liam Aylward is apparently on course to retain his seat.

In Dublin, Fine Gael's veteran MEP Gay Mitchell (left), who is probably the most pro-European politician in Ireland, and Labour's Pronsias de Rossa look at present quite safe. The third seat will be decided between Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald and Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fáil, who are both outgoing MEPs.
As Dublin is losing one of its previously four seats due to the overall down-sizing of the European Parliament, but all four outgoing MEPs are standing for re-election again, one will inevitably lose out.

In the South Fianna Fáil's outgoing MEP Brian Crowley (right), whose personal support clearly outranks that of his party, seems to be certain to return to Brussels and Strasbourg. Fine Gael is likely to win one seat as well, and at present it appears that former GAA President Seán Kelly, parachuted in as a 'celebrity' candidate, has the upper hand over his running mate, the outgoing Fine Gael MEP Colm Burke.
The third seat will be contested by sitting Independent MEP Kathy Sinnot and Toireasa Ferris (daughter of Kerry TD Martin Ferris) of Sinn Féin, with an outsider chance for the Labour Party's Alan Kelly.

The poll also suggests that two of the three seats in the North West would be taken by outgoing MEPs Jim Higgins (left) of Fine Gael and Marian Harkin (Independent), with the third seat going to Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher of Fianna Fáil, who is a former MEP and a sitting TD for Donegal South-West.

If this would indeed be the result on June 5th, it would be a set-back for Declan Ganley (right), the founder and leader of the new Pan-European party Libertas, who also stands as a candidate in the North-West and is confident to be elected.

About 500 people were polled by TNS-MRBI in each of the country's four European constituencies on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week for what is the first European poll of the campaign.
Although it does show some clear trends already, I think that it is too early in the campaign to make serious predictions. But over the coming weeks there will be more opinion polls, all the way until June 5th, when we will have the one and only poll that really counts: the actual election.

The Emerald Islander

11 May 2009

44 Irish Candidates stand in European Elections

More than 500 million people in all 27 countries of the EU are entitled to vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections, which are to take place during the first week of June.
As Europe's nations have traditionally different days of the week for elections, the voting process will be spread over four days, from Thursday, June 4th to Sunday, June 7th.

Britain and the Netherlands hold elections traditionally on a Thursday, and thus they will be the first two countries to go to the European polls on June 4th.

Ireland and the Czech Republic follow on Friday, June 5th (with the Czechs extending their vote to a second day, June 6th).

Saturday, June 6th will be election day in Cyprus, Latvia, Malta and Slovakia, as well as the first of the two days set aside for the polls in Italy.

All the other 18 EU countries - two thirds of the member states with the majority of Europe's population - hold elections traditionally on Sundays. They will vote on June 7th, which is also the second polling day for Italy.

The nine 'early bird' nations - including Ireland - will have to wait until Sunday night before exit polls can be published. Then follows the counting of votes, and the results will be known during the early hours of Monday, June 8th.

Candidate nominations for the European Parliament elections closed at 12 o'clock noon today, and after the deadline had passed, it emerged that a total of 44 individuals will contest the (now) twelve EP seats allocated to the Republic of Ireland.

There are seven political parties contesting the 2009 European elections in the Republic of Ireland: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Labour Party, the Green Party, Sinn Féin, Libertas and the Socialist Party. Together they are fielding 30 party candidates in the four constituencies, and there are also 14 independent candidates. (For a complete list of all 44 Irish candidates see below, at the end of this article.)










The most remarkable among the Independents are three women: Outgoing North-West MEP Marian Harkin (left), outgoing South MEP Kathy Sinnott (centre), and the political activist and environmentalist Patricia McKenna (right), who has been a Green Party MEP for Dublin from 1994 to 2004. An outspoken campaigner for human rights, the environment and many other issues, McKenna strongly opposed her party's coalition with Fianna Fáil in 2007. For the past two years she was more and more marginalised by the new Green Party leadership and has now left the party to stand in Dublin as an independent candidate for the European Parliament.

In the outgoing European Parliament we had 13 (of the 785) seats, but since the parliamentary reform reduced the overall number of MEPs to 736 for the new five-year session, Ireland lost one seat and retains only twelve, the same amount as Lithuania (and one less than Denmark, Finland and Slovakia). With 99 MEPs Germany has the largest national contingent, and Malta - with only five MEPs - the smallest.

The Irish reduction from 13 to 12 European Parliament seats affects most strongly the Dublin constituency, which is losing one of their currently four MEPs. Like the other three European constituencies in Ireland, Dublin will from now on be a 'three-seater'.
Since the last elections to the European Parliament in 2004 there have also been significant boundary revisions which affect predominantly the North-West constituency. Once covering the province of Connaught and the three Ulster counties in the Republic, this constituency has been enlarged and now also includes counties Clare, Longford, Roscommon and Westmeath. (Thus it is the only of the four constituencies that covers territory in all four Irish provinces.)

Of the 13 outgoing Irish MEPs all but two seek re-election. The retirees are Fine Gael's veteran MEP Avril Doyle (East) and Fianna Fáil's Seán Ó Neachtáin (North-West).
The latter had originally intended to stand again and received the nomination of his party. But then, rather surprisingly, Ó Neachtáin announced only last month that he would not be seeking re-election, apparently on the basis of medical advice he received.

This puts Fianna Fáil in some unexpected extra trouble. After a frantic and secretive consultation process between the party HQ in Dublin and local activists in the constituency, the former Minister of State Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher (left) was hastily appointed as Seán Ó Neachtáin's replacement. Gallagher, currently a Fianna Fáil TD for Donegal South-West, confirmed only this morning - 15 minutes before the deadline for nominations - that he will stand for his party in the North-West, seeking election to the European Parliament.

That the party has chosen him for this task is not a complete surprise, as Gallagher had been an MEP (for the then Connaught-Ulster constituency) from 1994 to 2002 and thus knows the ropes in Brussels. (Between 1981 and 1992 he was a Fianna Fáil TD for Donegal South-West, the same constituency he represents again in Dáil Éireann since 2002.)
From 1987 to 1994 Gallagher was Minister of State for the Marine & the Gaeltacht, and between 2002 and 2004 the No. 2 (junior minister) in the Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government.
His last government position was as junior minister in the Department of Health, where he was responsible for 'Health Promotion and Food Safety'. But when Brian Cowen became Taoiseach a year ago, Gallagher was one of the Ministers of State sacked by the new leader.

Speaking on RTÉ's News at One, former Senator (and Fianna Fáil candidate for the European Parliament) Paschal Mooney said that he was "angered by the nomination of Mr. Gallagher", his party comrade, "because both Fianna Fáil candidates are based in the northern part of the constituency".
Mooney explained that when he had been selected at a convention to stand in the north of the constituency, it was to balance the party ticket, with Seán Ó Neachtáin in the south.

Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher said he was standing "for the good of the constituency" and agreed that two weeks ago he had told (the Irish language TV channel) TG4 that if both he and Mr. Mooney were to stand for Fianna Fáil then there would be no balance.

The fact that the - rather popular - Seán Ó Neachtáin is not contesting the elections after all could provide an opening for Declan Ganley, founder and leader of the new Libertas party, who is standing in the North-West.
Based in Galway, Ganley might well be able to fill the political void left by Ó Neachtáin in the southern part of the constituency, while Gallagher and Mooney are chasing the same votes in the northern part. It will therefore be interesting to watch especially the North-West over the coming weeks.

Another hot-spot will be Dublin, where the one-seat-reduction makes this EP election literally a fight for survival for the capital's four outgoing MEPs Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin), Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael), Proinsias de Rossa (Labour Party) and Eoin Ryan (Fianna Fáil).
One of them will be sacrificed on the altar of parliamentary reform, but the quite tricky question is: which one?

I will follow the developments during the campaign and share my analysis and views with you here over the next three weeks. And even though I am based in the South, my consultancy work will lead me all around the country and give me a good overview of trends and tendencies.
Only one year after the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty and with the current Fianna Fáil-led government the most unpopular in the history of the state, this year's European elections promise to be among the most interesting and most unpredictable since 1973, when Ireland joined the EEC.

The Emerald Islander


Complete List of all Irish Candidates for
the European Parliament Election 2009

DUBLIN Constituency
(10 candidates)

Senator Deirdre de Burca - Green Party
Councillor Eibhlin Byrne - Fianna Fáil
Joe Higgins - Socialist Party
Mary Lou McDonald, MEP - Sinn Féin
Patricia McKenna - Independent
Gay Mitchell, MEP - Fine Gael
Proinsias de Rossa, MEP - Labour Party
Eoin Ryan, MEP - Fianna Fáil
Caroline Simmons - Libertas
Emmanuel Sweeney - Independent

* * *

EAST Constituency
(11 candidates)

Liam Aylward, MEP - Fianna Fáil
Thomas Byrne, TD - Fianna Fáil
Nessa Childers - Labour Party
Kathleen Funchion - Sinn Féin
Paddy Garvey - Independent
Micheál E. Grealy - Independent
Mairéad McGuinness, MEP - Fine Gael
Raymond O'Malley - Libertas
Senator John Paul Phelan - Fine Gael
Tomás Sharkey - Sinn Féin
Jim Tallon - Independent

* * *

NORTH-WEST Constituency
(13 candidates)

Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher, TD - Fianna Fáil
Declan Ganley - Libertas
Marian Harkin, MEP - Independent
Jim Higgins, MEP - Fine Gael
John Francis Higgins - Independent
Thomas King - Independent
Councillor Pádraig Mac Lochlainn - Sinn Féin
Noel McCullough - Independent
Michael McNamara - Independent
Paschal Mooney - Fianna Fáil
Susan O'Keefe - Labour Party
Fiachra Ó Luain - Independent
Senator Joe O'Reilly - Fine Gael

* * *

SOUTH Constituency
(10 candidates)

Senator Dan Boyle - Green Party
Colm Burke, MEP - Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, MEP - Fianna Fáil
Councillor Toiréasa Ferris - Sinn Féin
Senator Alan Kelly - Labour Party
Seán Kelly - Fine Gael
Ned O'Keeffe, TD - Fianna Fáil
Maurice Sexton - Independent
Kathy Sinnott, MEP - Independent
Alexander Stafford - Independent

10 May 2009

Gormley is "happy with NAMA"

John Gormley (photo), the leader of Ireland's Green Party and Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government*, today declared that "within the next two years we should see a turnaround in the Economy".
But, according to Gormley, this will only happen "if the vision of the green economy is implemented". In other words, it is most unlikely.

Speaking at lunchtime on the This Week programme on RTÉ Radio 1, Minister Gormley also said he "believes that the fundamentals of the Irish economy are still strong enough", but that "the green vision is the only one to get us through".

Having entered government on a coalition pact with his previously worst political enemy Fianna Fáil (and on a big dream of creating a 'green government') less than two years ago, it appears that Gormley is still dreaming and either unaware of the reality, or closing his eyes deliberately, willing to soldier on until the inevitable bitter end.

John Gormley also stated that he is "happy with the establishment of the National Assets Management Agency (NAMA)".
The creation of this new agency was announced recently by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. It is supposed to take over all the bad loans and 'toxic' assets Irish banks have accumulated over the past decade of financial madness and recklessness. Nobody knows if this concept will work, and even less what the experiment will cost Irish taxpayers.
Numerous economists have pointed out that a full nationalisation of all Irish banks - and even if it is only for a limited period of time - would be a much better and safer solution, and certainly cost the state a lot less.
But once again the government has made up its mind and is now pressing ahead, regardless if the action makes any sense or not.

It is worth to remember that John Gormley is not an economist. Before entering full-time politics he worked as a language teacher, which is an honourable profession, but does not make one an expert on the Economy.
But since there is not a single economist among Ireland's government ministers, almost everyone of them is lately developing into some kind of self-appointed armchair analyst of the Economy. John Gormley is only the latest among his colleagues to come out with statements on economical matters.

The purpose of all this is to give the Irish people the impression that the government knows what it is doing, and that all is not so bad after all. In 26 days the nation will go to the polling stations and elect 13 Members of the European Parliament and all local Councillors in Ireland's counties and cities. On the same day there are also two by-elections for Dáil Éireann in Dublin, caused by the deaths of the former TDs Seamus Brennan (Fianna Fáil) and Tony Gregory (Independent).
Going by recent opinion polls, the two government parties (Fianna Fáil and Green Party) can expect a hammering on all levels, as there has never been so much dissatisfaction with an Irish government since the foundation of the state.

So John Gormley's attempt to talk up the Economy on national radio, less than a month before election day, has only one purpose: to win votes for his disintegrating party, which has lost two sitting City Councillors (in Dublin and Cork) and several long-established candidates and activists recently.

It won't work, and being an intelligent man, John Gormley must know it. But since he has chosen to be First Mate on a sinking ship, he just keeps going and pretending.
Having supported the Green Party myself for many years, I feel in a personal way sorry for him. However, he made his choice, and he will get the public's reaction for it. Had he even a little bit of green spirit and honesty left, he and his two colleagues would resign from the government and with that trigger an early general election. This is what Ireland really needs urgently, as only a new government would have a chance to lead us out of the current crisis. Every day the present administration stays in office is another black and wasted day for Ireland, and especially for our failing Economy.

The Emerald Islander


* Ireland must be the only country in the world that has - traditionally - no Department (or Ministry) of the Interior. Thus most of the functions of a Department of the Interior are handled here by the Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government. However, the responsibility for the Police (in Ireland called the Garda Siochana) is not included and instead part of the Department of Justice.

26 April 2009

Latest Poll shows Fianna Fáil in Melt-Down

Every month the Red C polling organisation produces a nationwide political poll for the Sunday Business Post, Ireland's leading economical weekly.
The latest of these polls, published in today's edition of the paper, must make grim reading for the Irish government and especially for its majority party Fianna Fáil.

Being in power (with support from the Progressive Democrats and - since 2007 - the Green Party) since her rather surprising election win in 1997, Fianna Fáil enjoyed an unprecedented decade of widespread public support, riding on the wave of the unexpected economic boom known commonly as the 'Celtic Tiger'.
This boom was - as we now know - nothing but an artificial bubble, created by a relaxed and incompetent government, irresponsible banking, criminal speculations and a mad drive to build ever more houses and apartments without having a real demand for them.
When the bubble eventually burst last year, we found ourselves close to national bankruptcy and the unbelievable incompetence of both our government and our banks was exposed for everyone to see.

Although unrelated, the burst of the bubble happened shortly after the Irish electorate defeated the government - and all opposition parties except Sinn Féin - by rejecting the Lisbon Treaty.

Bertie Ahern, who was Taoiseach (Prime Minister) since 1997 and must surely have known only too well what was coming down the political and economical road, had jumped ship just in time to leave his successor (and previously deputy) Brian Cowen in complete charge of the developing political crisis and financial melt-down.

Ever since the once high popularity of Fianna Fáil has been in freefall. The government's 2009 Budget - brought forward to October 2008 - did further damage to the party, and the various forced additions to it made things even worse. The latest - the 'supplementary' or 'emergency' Budget presented by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan less than three weeks ago - seems to have delivered the final devastating blow to Fianna Fáil and its political future.

Today's Red C poll shows the party in complete melt-down, with only 23% of the electorate still supporting the faltering Fianna Fáil, whose incompetence and arrogance are creating ever more and ever widespread anger in all sections of the Irish population. This is the lowest rating of public support for Fianna Fáil in the party's history.

Not surprisingly the biggest winner is Fine Gael, Ireland's largest opposition party, which has been on the rise since last Autumn and gained a further two points this month, bringing it to an unprecedented 33%, ten percentage points ahead of Fianna Fáil.

The Labour Party, second-largest force in opposition and the potential coalition partner for Fine Gael, also improved her rising support by another two points to now 19%. This is clearly a reaction to the excellent parliamentary performance of party leader Eamon Gilmore and his deputy (and spokesperson on Finance) Joan Burton.

The Green Party, in coalition with Fianna Fáil since 2007 and facing internal opposition from a growing group of its traditional members and supporters ever since, seems so far unscaved by the government's massive unpopularity and remains unchanged on 7%. But this figure could be deceptive. The party has no chance to win a seat in the European election in June, and it is more than doubtful that it can perform well in the Local Government elections held on the same day. In recent months the Greens have lost two of their most prominent local councillors, and in some constituencies their previous candidates have decided not to stand for the party this year.

Sinn Féin, the smallest of the three opposition parties in parliament, gained one point in this month's poll and now stands on 8%, moving slightly ahead of the Green Party. It is perhaps a surprise that Ireland's oldest political party (and the only one active in the North as well as in the Republic) is not receiving more public support in the wake of the Fianna Fáil melt-down. There are several reasons for this, but the most significant is that - despite its now totally peaceful and democratic approach and its leading participation in the power-sharing government in the North - Sinn Féin is still not making inroads into Ireland's middle classes. This could change if the party can win stronger support from younger people, especially the growing student population, which is so far still predominantly non-political and more interested in 'fun' and an easy life. Increasing hardship and the expected re-introduction of fees for third-level education could change that.

The group listed in the Red C poll as 'Independents and others', which includes a number of smaller parties without parliamentary representation, remains - again - unchanged on 10% of public support. It is not clear if the poll has taken into account a number of newly formed groups, many of which have nominated candidates for the Local Government elections in June. They are so far a widely unknown quantity, but could attract a significant percentage of protest votes.

For the first time the poll features the new pan-european party Libertas, which emerged out of the prominent Anti-Lisbon campaign group with the same name and intends to have candidates for the European Parliament in all 27 member states of the EU. The poll registers so far only 2% of public support for Libertas in Ireland, which seems a very low figure, given the strong and effective campaign the organisation mounted in their successful defeat of the Lisbon Treaty.
But it is not unusual that polling organisations need a certain amount of time to assess the true strength of new parties.

Based on today's figures one can however be certain that Fianna Fáil will suffer serious losses in both the European and Local Government elections on June 5th. There is also no doubt that the two up-coming Dublin by-elections for the Dail will not produce any new Fianna Fáil TD.

Depending on the severity of their losses in June, Fianna Fáil could well face a leadership crisis or even an internal rebellion during the summer. The position of Brian Cowen, who was elected as party leader and Taoiseach without contest last May, is far from secure now. There is still the traditional and rather stubborn loyalty to a leader for which Fianna Fáil has always been known, but ever since the (now independent) Wicklow TD Joe Behan left the party last year, there is a slowly but steadily widening crack developing between the cabinet and the backbenches.
An even wider gap exists now between most Fianna Fáil politicians and the people of Ireland, and the future of our main government party is very bleak, to put it mildly.

The Emerald Islander

14 April 2009

Batt O'Keeffe faced INTO 'Wall of Silence'

Irish primary school teachers are to call on the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) to hold a day of action before June, in order to defend public services and jobs.

During their annual conference in Letterkenny, Co. Donegal, delegates of the Irish National Teachers' Organisation (INTO) backed a motion on a 'day of action' and condemned what they call "a campaign of vilification against the pay and conditions of public service employees".
They also support the withdrawal of support for modernisation measures in schools in the event of an extended pay freeze.

Earlier today there was a very frosty reception for Batt O'Keeffe (right) from the teachers at the conference.
The Minister for Education was greeted with a 'wall of silence' as he arrived, and his speech was punctuated by loud moans and derisive laughter at times.

Around thirty of the INTO delegates walked out of the conference room when Batt O'Keeffe began speaking, while many others held up posters highlighting some of the issues that have provoked their anger: the pensions levy, the loss of teaching posts and the abolition of special needs classes (left).

When the Minister ended, there was almost no applause. Only a few of the invited guests, seated in the front row, felt obliged to clap mildly.

Later the delegates gave a long standing ovation to INTO General Secretary John Carr (right) when he spoke of the bitter resentment felt by teachers as their pockets were picked to bail-out bankers, speculators and developers.

To loud and frequent applause, Carr said that Ireland's children were "paying the price for a few capitalist criminals".

Yesterday evening INTO's President Declan Kelleher (left) accused the government of being dictated to by the employers' group IBEC and the right-wing of Fianna Fáil, at the expense of ordinary workers. Declan Kelleher also got a long standing ovation when he warned that "the government would reap its reward". He said that teachers were prepared to pay their fair share, but in the meantime, the rich were getting off scot-free.

The strongly expressed anger of INTO members gathered in Letterkenny reflects the current feelings among Ireland's primary school teachers, as well as the general mood in the public sector as a whole.

No government, regardless of system or political party, can rule or govern a country without the full support of Civil Service and administration.
And usually public service employees - the people with the safest jobs and best pensions in the country - are the slowest to anger when it comes to industrial disputes.

The fact that in the Republic of Ireland it is now exactly this group of people that spearheads the anger and protest against the government and its austerity programme is quite significant.

If - as we expect - the two government parties are hammered in the Local & European Elections in June and the pressure from public sector workers continues (while the number of unemployed in the private sector rises further), it is quite possible that Brian Cowan will have no other choice but call an early General Election for early Autumn.

Our government is by now only a shadow of what it was when formed by Bertie Ahern in the Summer of 2007 with confidence and aspirations. Less than a year after Ahern handed over to Brian Cowan, his own party Fianna Fáil is in tatters, the Greens are completely confused and 'lost in time', while the administration around them is cracking and crumbling at the edges.

The sooner the people of Ireland have a chance to elect a new parliament and government, the better.
Greeting a cabinet minister with a 'wall of silence' is only one step away from taking a wall apart and throwing stones at the government...

The Emerald Islander