Ireland's Government is crumbling at the Edges

Since both Houses of the Oireachtas (Ireland's parliament) are on their long summer holidays, August is usually a month with few political news and events. However, as we are in the deepest economic and political crisis since the foundation of the State, the political matters have not gone away this year as they normally do when Leinster House is empty for months.

There are too many dark clouds hanging over Ireland at present, and in particular over the current government, which is slowly but steadily crumbling at the edges of its coalition.

Only recently two Fianna Fáil backbench TDs resigned the 'party whip', which means that they are no longer members of FF's parliamentary party group. They did not (yet) go as far as their former colleague Joe Behan from Wicklow, who left Fianna Fáil for good last year and now sits as an independent TD. But they might well follow Behan if things are getting any worse.
And there are more Fianna Fáil backbenchers who feel increasingly isolated and uncomfortable in their party. It only needs a few more of them to have the courage and guts to leave, and the government will be without a majority.

And there is of course the always present 'Green factor'. Ever since the Green Party made its fatal decision to join Fianna Fáil in a government coalition two years ago, a significant minority of party members are very unhappy with their leadership.
Many have meanwhile left the Green Party altogether, while others - like Brendan McCann, who was the Green candidate in Waterford in several local and general elections - remain nominally party members, but have gone into political hibernation.

In the recent local government elections the Green Party was almost wiped out completely and lost most of their previously 18 local councillors, while one of their former councillors - Nessa Childers - was elected to the European Parliament for the Labour Party on the same day.

So it is no surprise that the mood in the Green Party is pretty foul at present, and even within their small parliamentary group (of six TDs and two unelected Senators) there is a constant rumbling and grumbling, combined with great uncertainty where to go from here and how to proceed.

The government's plan to establish a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) is the most controversial subject at present, and Taoiseach Brian Cowen is facing renewed pressure from the Green Party over it.
To make things worse for the Fianna Fáil leader, Mattie McGrath, one of his backbenchers from Co. Tipperary, has expressed strong doubts about NAMA as well.

Senator Dan Boyle (left), the chairman of the Green Party, has again warned that his party's support for the NAMA legislation "cannot be taken for granted".
In an interview with RTÉ News, Senator Boyle said that the Greens had "an internal process to complete" and that their members would ultimately make the decision.

This is the grass roots democracy for which the Green Party has been rightly famous over the past 25 years. But much of its actual people power has evaporated since many key people who opposed the Green's participation in government have left the party. It will be interesting to see in which direction the remaining Green Party grass roots will turn when they vote on NAMA.

In recent days, both Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan have expressed strong confidence that the Greens will back their NAMA legislation, if not outright then perhaps with some amendments. But I would not put a bet on that, if I were a betting man.

Meanwhile another Fianna Fáil backbench TD came out of the proverbial woodwork and said he would "require many more assurances from the Minister for Finance" before he could vote in favour of the proposed NAMA legislation.

Mattie McGrath (right), Fianna Fáil TD for Tipperary-South, stated that he has received "a huge amount of calls from people worried about the NAMA legislation". Some of them, he said, were "demanding a referendum on the NAMA plan".

This would not be a bad idea, and if adopted by the government, a NAMA referendum could easily be held together with the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty on October 2nd.

"It appears that a few hundred bankers have brought the country to its knees, and that the tax payer will have to pick up the bill," Deputy McGrath said, demanding that "the minister [for Finance] must provide detailed assurances to TDs at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting in Athlone next month".

Mattie McGrath, who was elected in 2007 for the first time and is therefore a 'new face' in the Dáil, added that he could "not trust the Department of Finance", given its record in dealing with the banking crisis to date.

Such clear and open words from a Fianna Fáil TD are rare, and very welcome. They show that not everyone in Fianna Fáil has lost the plot, and that there are still some government politicians with a portion of common sense left intact.

The question is how many of them are there, will their number be large enough to make a difference, and will they have the courage to stand firm, even if it could mean bringing down the government.
Should they do that, indeed, coming generations of Irish people will remember them fondly, and most of the Irish people alive would be most grateful.

Perhaps the Greens will beat the unhappy Fianna Fáil backbenchers to the post and pull the political emergency break. They will be punished by the voters for their support of Fianna Fáil anyway, if they stay in government or walk out. But if they could see their mistake of 2007 and have the guts to admit it, they might have a chance to survive as a party and - over some years - regroup and regrow again. (If they stick to Brian Cowen and Fianna Fáil until the bitter end, the Greens will most likely join the PDs as a sad footnote in political history.)

As much as the parliamentary holiday period is usually regarded as 'quiet', it is full of tensions and possibilities this year. Watch this space, and stay informed.
The Irish government is crumbling, and its days are numbered. I predict that it will not last until 2012, when the next regular general election is due to happen.

There are various elements that could end Brian Cowen's rule, from the Greens walking out to a backbench revolt in his own party.
And we should not forget the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. If the people of Ireland have the courage to follow their hearts, minds and conviction and say 'No' to Lisbon for a second time (on October 2nd), the government could collapse like a house of cards.

This would be the best thing that could happen to Ireland, and the first real step on the way out of recession and crisis.

The Emerald Islander

Latest Poll shows Fianna Fáil in Melt-Down

Every month the Red C polling organisation produces a nationwide political poll for the Sunday Business Post, Ireland's leading economical weekly.
The latest of these polls, published in today's edition of the paper, must make grim reading for the Irish government and especially for its majority party Fianna Fáil.

Being in power (with support from the Progressive Democrats and - since 2007 - the Green Party) since her rather surprising election win in 1997, Fianna Fáil enjoyed an unprecedented decade of widespread public support, riding on the wave of the unexpected economic boom known commonly as the 'Celtic Tiger'.
This boom was - as we now know - nothing but an artificial bubble, created by a relaxed and incompetent government, irresponsible banking, criminal speculations and a mad drive to build ever more houses and apartments without having a real demand for them.
When the bubble eventually burst last year, we found ourselves close to national bankruptcy and the unbelievable incompetence of both our government and our banks was exposed for everyone to see.

Although unrelated, the burst of the bubble happened shortly after the Irish electorate defeated the government - and all opposition parties except Sinn Féin - by rejecting the Lisbon Treaty.

Bertie Ahern, who was Taoiseach (Prime Minister) since 1997 and must surely have known only too well what was coming down the political and economical road, had jumped ship just in time to leave his successor (and previously deputy) Brian Cowen in complete charge of the developing political crisis and financial melt-down.

Ever since the once high popularity of Fianna Fáil has been in freefall. The government's 2009 Budget - brought forward to October 2008 - did further damage to the party, and the various forced additions to it made things even worse. The latest - the 'supplementary' or 'emergency' Budget presented by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan less than three weeks ago - seems to have delivered the final devastating blow to Fianna Fáil and its political future.

Today's Red C poll shows the party in complete melt-down, with only 23% of the electorate still supporting the faltering Fianna Fáil, whose incompetence and arrogance are creating ever more and ever widespread anger in all sections of the Irish population. This is the lowest rating of public support for Fianna Fáil in the party's history.

Not surprisingly the biggest winner is Fine Gael, Ireland's largest opposition party, which has been on the rise since last Autumn and gained a further two points this month, bringing it to an unprecedented 33%, ten percentage points ahead of Fianna Fáil.

The Labour Party, second-largest force in opposition and the potential coalition partner for Fine Gael, also improved her rising support by another two points to now 19%. This is clearly a reaction to the excellent parliamentary performance of party leader Eamon Gilmore and his deputy (and spokesperson on Finance) Joan Burton.

The Green Party, in coalition with Fianna Fáil since 2007 and facing internal opposition from a growing group of its traditional members and supporters ever since, seems so far unscaved by the government's massive unpopularity and remains unchanged on 7%. But this figure could be deceptive. The party has no chance to win a seat in the European election in June, and it is more than doubtful that it can perform well in the Local Government elections held on the same day. In recent months the Greens have lost two of their most prominent local councillors, and in some constituencies their previous candidates have decided not to stand for the party this year.

Sinn Féin, the smallest of the three opposition parties in parliament, gained one point in this month's poll and now stands on 8%, moving slightly ahead of the Green Party. It is perhaps a surprise that Ireland's oldest political party (and the only one active in the North as well as in the Republic) is not receiving more public support in the wake of the Fianna Fáil melt-down. There are several reasons for this, but the most significant is that - despite its now totally peaceful and democratic approach and its leading participation in the power-sharing government in the North - Sinn Féin is still not making inroads into Ireland's middle classes. This could change if the party can win stronger support from younger people, especially the growing student population, which is so far still predominantly non-political and more interested in 'fun' and an easy life. Increasing hardship and the expected re-introduction of fees for third-level education could change that.

The group listed in the Red C poll as 'Independents and others', which includes a number of smaller parties without parliamentary representation, remains - again - unchanged on 10% of public support. It is not clear if the poll has taken into account a number of newly formed groups, many of which have nominated candidates for the Local Government elections in June. They are so far a widely unknown quantity, but could attract a significant percentage of protest votes.

For the first time the poll features the new pan-european party Libertas, which emerged out of the prominent Anti-Lisbon campaign group with the same name and intends to have candidates for the European Parliament in all 27 member states of the EU. The poll registers so far only 2% of public support for Libertas in Ireland, which seems a very low figure, given the strong and effective campaign the organisation mounted in their successful defeat of the Lisbon Treaty.
But it is not unusual that polling organisations need a certain amount of time to assess the true strength of new parties.

Based on today's figures one can however be certain that Fianna Fáil will suffer serious losses in both the European and Local Government elections on June 5th. There is also no doubt that the two up-coming Dublin by-elections for the Dail will not produce any new Fianna Fáil TD.

Depending on the severity of their losses in June, Fianna Fáil could well face a leadership crisis or even an internal rebellion during the summer. The position of Brian Cowen, who was elected as party leader and Taoiseach without contest last May, is far from secure now. There is still the traditional and rather stubborn loyalty to a leader for which Fianna Fáil has always been known, but ever since the (now independent) Wicklow TD Joe Behan left the party last year, there is a slowly but steadily widening crack developing between the cabinet and the backbenches.
An even wider gap exists now between most Fianna Fáil politicians and the people of Ireland, and the future of our main government party is very bleak, to put it mildly.

The Emerald Islander

Brian Cowen at the Crossroads

A half-point cut in interest rates by the world's most important central banks has failed to halt the slide on the international stock markets, and the massive infusion of billions into the desolate banks of many western countries seems not to achieve the desired affect either.

It appears that those who control the immense multi-national gambling dens - known as stock exchanges - know something that central banks and governments do not know.

And even though I am no economist, I can imagine what this extra knowledge is: The fact that the whole system of US-led western capitalism is totally over-hyped and under-capitalised. Sooner or later this house of cards will collapse completely and leave all of us with gaping mouths and staring eyes - staring into the abyss.

Unless - that is - we do something drastic about the financial 'markets', and do it fast.

The Irish economist, author and commentator David McWilliams has made a good suggestion on the Questions & Answers programme on RTE 1 television two weeks ago. He suggested to establish an independent investigation unit - something in the style and with the authority of the famous 'Untouchables' under Eliot Ness, which cleaned up Chicago in the 1920s and 1930s - to sort out the mess, mismanagement and corruption in the finance sector.

In my opinion this is an excellent idea, and one can only hope that Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan are taking David's advice, as they have done with the state guarantee for the bank's deposits and loans.
But time is of the essence, and the usual Irish procrastination could lead us into a huge disaster. The State has instruments already in place - such as the Financial Regulator and the Criminal Assets Bureau (CAB) - and an independent investigation unit could be formed in a relatively short time, if the government has the will to do it.

Brian Cowen, who inherited the prime-ministerial mantle from Bertie Ahern only in May of this year, is approaching his political and personal crossroads. Which direction he chooses will have detrimental and long-lasting affects on him, his reputation, his party, the government and the whole of Ireland.
Depending on his choice of policies, Cowen could become either the most unpopular Taoiseach in Irish history and the greatest failure in political leadership we have ever seen, or - if he rises to the challenge - he could achieve almost heroic stature and great popularity for himself and his party.

So what is it going to be? I don't know, and at this stage really nobody does. But the next few weeks will be crucial and make all the difference.

With the unpopular new measures introduced by Brian Lenihan in the 2009 Budget on Tuesday - especially the scandalous withdrawal of medical cards for the over 70-year-olds - the pressure is mounting on Cowen and his government.
Already one TD - Joe Behan from Wicklow - has resigned from Fianna Fáil over the matter, and the independent Dublin TD Finian McGrath is contemplating to withdraw his support from the government coalition as well.

Now is the time to act, and act decisively, otherwise Brian Cowen could be out of office faster than he got into it.

While only a year ago the new government - formed after the 2007 election - looked safe, stable and settled in for the full five years, almost all of this stability has disappeared in recent weeks. The prospect of an early general election is no longer a far-away figment of wishful thinking.
With the - widely self-inflicted - damage to the government it is now a realistic and ever more looming possibility.

The Emerald Islander