Outcome of second Lisbon Referendum is still open, while Millions are spent on the Campaign

Ireland's Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin has acknowledged that there is still "a significant challenge for the YES side in the remaining weeks of the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign".
He reacted to a new opinion poll that shows a drop in support for the treaty.

The TNS-MRBI poll, published in yesterday's edition of The Irish Times, lists the ratio of YES voters at 46% - an eight point fall since the last survey in May.

29% of those asked say that they will vote NO (up one point since May), and there is a big increase in the 'don't knows', whose number went up to 25%.

Micheál Martin (right) said that "a vigorous campaign is needed to get the YES message across".
He has also accused the NO campaign of "a basic mistrust of Europe based on conspiracy theories".

Well, this "vigorous campaign" is already in full flow, and one can expect that it will become even stronger, the closer we come to the referendum day, October 2nd.

On Thursday I was in Dublin, and what I saw there truly astonished me. There is not a single lamp post in the city that is not displaying a Lisbon Treaty campaign poster. More than 80% of them are pro-treaty, and the rest - mostly from the Catholic campaign group COIR - ask for a NO vote. It is an amazing sight to behold and I have never seen anything like it. Not in any Irish election campaign, and not in the run-up to a referendum either.

Among the pro-treaty posters those from the political parties - predominantly Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael - are outnumbered by large-size ads from two groups one has never heard of before. They were only formed very recently, and for the sole purpose of promoting the YES vote on October 2nd. Nobody seems to know who is really behind them and, even more important, where their money comes from.

The massive poster campaign in Dublin alone costs several millions of Euros (and since I have managed general election campaigns, I do know what posters cost). Who is paying for all these posters?

There is a deeply sinister element in the campaign that makes one quite uneasy. When Micheál Martin speaks of "a basic mistrust of Europe based on conspiracy theories" in the NO camp, he is not too far off the truth. Only that there is neither 'mistrust of Europe' nor pre-occupation with 'conspiracy theories'. But people with open eyes and a working brain do notice the very strange structure the YES campaign has developed.

Why is the government relying on non-descript groups of shady people to achieve a YES vote? Why is there hardly any government minister giving major speeches in favour of the treaty? And why is it that no one in Fianna Fáil or the Green Party is seeking an open exchange of arguments over the details of the treaty, as we had it last year in the National Forum on Europe (NFOE)?

Well, the NFOE, which was the best debating forum Ireland has ever seen, was abolished by the government, with the excuse of "cost-cutting during the recession". The real reason is that the NFOE was too fair and too sophisticated for a government of ignorant bullies. It produced deep, open and high-spirited discussions about the real matters, and as a result a majority of 53.4% of the Irish electorate rejected the Lisbon Treaty on June 12th, 2008.

Soon after Micheál Martin commissioned a 'research group' to find out the reasons for the rejection. I am sure that he was told what motivated the Irish people, but he did not publish it. Instead he came up with a smokescreen of lies and half-truths (see my entries of September 8th & November 17th, 2008) that deliberately omitted the main reasons for last year's NO vote: The unwillingness of the Irish people to become voiceless and powerless inside the EU Council, and the extreme unpopularity of the current government, which had not even bothered to read the treaty, but expected the nation to accept it nevertheless.

Now the YES campaign uses no longer political arguments, but relies mainly on scaremongering, baseless attacks on the NO campaign and an avalanche of posters and leaflets, the majority of which are apolitical, vague and entirely manipulative. Not even to mention that they are also conveying lies.
Instead of seasoned politicians, some businessmen, footballers, actors and so-called 'celebrities' are wheeled out to persuade the Irish nation that the Lisbon Treaty is a good thing. What do they know about it? Does anyone think that people like Michael O'Leary, Roy Keane or some shallow game-show hosts have actually read - and understood - the treaty, when neither the Taoiseach nor our EU Commissioner Charlie McCreevy could do it?

The YES campaign has obviously enormous amounts of money at their disposal, and they are using it. What they do not have are valid arguments and trustworthy people to put them forward.

Anyone who has voted NO last year should do so again, because - with one exception - nothing has changed since the last referendum.
This one exception is the retention of our EU Commissioner, which is a direct result of the fact that Ireland rejected the treaty. (Had we voted it through, we would have already lost our right to have a permanent EU Commissioner at all times.) It is rather strange that the government and others in the YES campaign use the retention of the EU Commissioner now as an argument to vote YES this time.

And anyone who voted YES last year should examine very carefully what has happened to Ireland since and how our government has squandered every bit of political and economic credit we had left.
The latest opinion poll, which shows the support for Fianna Fáil at 17% and that for Brian Cowen even lower - at 15% - should give you more than enough direction for October 2nd. Should the devious campaign of deception, which suggests that our EU membership is at risk if we vote NO again, succeed, everyone alive in Ireland today will live to regret it deeply. And our children and even grandchildren will hate us for it, while they still have to pay for the follies of our generation and our current government.

The so-called 'safe-guards' the government has apparently 'secured' in Brussels are worth nothing, not even the paper they are printed on. Not one of them is really relevant for Ireland, and not one of them has been added to the Lisbon Treaty. We were promised that they might become "part of the next EU treaty", perhaps the accession treaty for Croatia. If it were not so serious, one could mistake this for a joke.

It is not even certain yet that Croatia will be admitted into the EU, and no date for it has been set either. All Brian Cowen has 'achieved' in Brussels is a very vague promise of 'perhaps some jam in the future'. But there is no 'jam' today or tomorrow. If the Taoiseach had listened to the people and represented their democratic will strongly in the meetings of the EU Council, he could have achieved a lot more for Ireland and would deserve recognition and praise for it.

But neither he, nor Micheál Martin, have stood up for Ireland in Brussels. They weaselled and crawled in front of the other leaders, especially those from the large member states, and proved as spineless there as they are towards our banks here at home. They have shown more than enough incompetence in every possible way, together with a strong disregard for the people of Ireland and their political will, which was clearly expressed in last year's referendum (and even further in the recent elections of this summer).
Such behaviour can lead any person with common sense only to one decision: To vote NO on October 2nd and reject the Lisbon Treaty a second time - and for good.

Meanwhile Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (left), Sinn Féin's leader in the Dáil, responded to Micheál Martin's statement by saying that the government and others had "come back and tried to fool the Irish people that they have a new treaty or a better deal - but they have no such thing".
"We have an agreement which indicates that each of the EU member states will retain a commissioner, but the agreement does not in fact guarantee that the arrangement will continue into perpetuity," he added.
"It is very, very important that people get down to reading the fine print and understand exactly what is involved in the declarations, the protocol and the agreement in relation to the commissioner."

"Make no mistake about it, you have endeavoured to pull the wool over the people's eyes by pretending this is a new treaty, or a better treaty. But it is neither", he told the Minister for Foreign Affairs. "It is the same treaty, and on October the 2nd the Irish people should resolve to vote NO again."

In a separate statement, the Green Party's leader and Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government John Gormley (right) has acknowledged that "the Lisbon Referendum could be lost unless the YES side runs a positive and energetic campaign".

Gormley said that the Greens were "not in any way complacent", and he had always been of the view that the outcome would be "very close". The YES side had been "put on the back foot in the last campaign", answering the criticisms of the NO campaign. This time, he said, the YES side "must run a positive and energetic campaign". They would run a risk of losing the referendum if that is not done.

I wonder if John Gormley's statement is an ever so slightly camouflaged test balloon for a possible exit of the Green Party from the government coalition, should the treaty be rejected again.

In my opinion Brian Cowen could and would not survive a second defeat as Taoiseach. His own party would look for a new leader, and - with some luck - it might even trigger an early general election. Even though this has nothing to do with the substantial and good reasons to vote NO on October 2nd, it would be an added bonus. As I have stated here already several times, as long as the current government stays in office, there is absolutely no hope for Ireland to find a way out of the current crisis and recession.

The Emerald Islander

Eamon Gilmore calls again for the temporary Nationalisation of Ireland's major Banks

Eamon Gilmore (photo), leader of Ireland's Labour Party, has again called for the temporary nationalisation of the country's main banks "as an alternative to the setting up of the government-proposed National Asset Management Agency (NAMA)".

Speaking on RTÉ News, Gilmore said that "a mechanism should be established to write down bad debts, before returning the banks to the market when they are restored to good order".

The Labour Party leader also emphasised that "it is a necessity to get the banks lending to businesses again".

His proposal was not without cost, Gilmore added, but he claimed it would mean a lot less risk for the taxpayer than the government's plan.

Under the government's proposed legislation, NAMA would be taking over € 90 billion worth of debt away from Irish banks, so that they can start lending again.

The amount NAMA would pay for the debt has yet to be decided. But in an article, published in yesterday's edition of The Irish Times, 46 economists warned that NAMA might pay too much and thus create an extra burden for Ireland's taxpayers. (see yesterday's entry below)

Fine Gael has already stated that it will oppose the government's NAMA plan when the Dáil debates the legislation next month. Since Sinn Féin, which demands a referendum on NAMA, is against it as well, this means that all opposition parties in parliament are united on the matter, even though they do not agree on the details of possible alternatives.

The Green Party, who is the junior partner in the government coalition, will hold a special conference to debate the plan. (see my entry of August 25th)
The outcome of this conference is far from certain, and neither is the continuous support of the Green Party for the current government.

As things stand at present, anything is possible. A temporary nationalisation of our major banks - as demanded today and previously by Eamon Gilmore and his party, as well as by Sinn Féin and the Socialist Party in separate statements - would in my opinion be the safest and least costly option.

We can expect that the government will not listen and stick to its original plan. So I suggest that now is a good time to contact your local TDs, especially those from Fianna Fáil, and tell them in no uncertain terms what you think of NAMA. It might also be helpful to mention that their own seat will be in serious danger if they ram through a legislation that no one in the country really wants, but for which everyone would have to pay severely over decades to come.

The Emerald Islander

Ireland's Government is crumbling at the Edges

Since both Houses of the Oireachtas (Ireland's parliament) are on their long summer holidays, August is usually a month with few political news and events. However, as we are in the deepest economic and political crisis since the foundation of the State, the political matters have not gone away this year as they normally do when Leinster House is empty for months.

There are too many dark clouds hanging over Ireland at present, and in particular over the current government, which is slowly but steadily crumbling at the edges of its coalition.

Only recently two Fianna Fáil backbench TDs resigned the 'party whip', which means that they are no longer members of FF's parliamentary party group. They did not (yet) go as far as their former colleague Joe Behan from Wicklow, who left Fianna Fáil for good last year and now sits as an independent TD. But they might well follow Behan if things are getting any worse.
And there are more Fianna Fáil backbenchers who feel increasingly isolated and uncomfortable in their party. It only needs a few more of them to have the courage and guts to leave, and the government will be without a majority.

And there is of course the always present 'Green factor'. Ever since the Green Party made its fatal decision to join Fianna Fáil in a government coalition two years ago, a significant minority of party members are very unhappy with their leadership.
Many have meanwhile left the Green Party altogether, while others - like Brendan McCann, who was the Green candidate in Waterford in several local and general elections - remain nominally party members, but have gone into political hibernation.

In the recent local government elections the Green Party was almost wiped out completely and lost most of their previously 18 local councillors, while one of their former councillors - Nessa Childers - was elected to the European Parliament for the Labour Party on the same day.

So it is no surprise that the mood in the Green Party is pretty foul at present, and even within their small parliamentary group (of six TDs and two unelected Senators) there is a constant rumbling and grumbling, combined with great uncertainty where to go from here and how to proceed.

The government's plan to establish a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) is the most controversial subject at present, and Taoiseach Brian Cowen is facing renewed pressure from the Green Party over it.
To make things worse for the Fianna Fáil leader, Mattie McGrath, one of his backbenchers from Co. Tipperary, has expressed strong doubts about NAMA as well.

Senator Dan Boyle (left), the chairman of the Green Party, has again warned that his party's support for the NAMA legislation "cannot be taken for granted".
In an interview with RTÉ News, Senator Boyle said that the Greens had "an internal process to complete" and that their members would ultimately make the decision.

This is the grass roots democracy for which the Green Party has been rightly famous over the past 25 years. But much of its actual people power has evaporated since many key people who opposed the Green's participation in government have left the party. It will be interesting to see in which direction the remaining Green Party grass roots will turn when they vote on NAMA.

In recent days, both Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan have expressed strong confidence that the Greens will back their NAMA legislation, if not outright then perhaps with some amendments. But I would not put a bet on that, if I were a betting man.

Meanwhile another Fianna Fáil backbench TD came out of the proverbial woodwork and said he would "require many more assurances from the Minister for Finance" before he could vote in favour of the proposed NAMA legislation.

Mattie McGrath (right), Fianna Fáil TD for Tipperary-South, stated that he has received "a huge amount of calls from people worried about the NAMA legislation". Some of them, he said, were "demanding a referendum on the NAMA plan".

This would not be a bad idea, and if adopted by the government, a NAMA referendum could easily be held together with the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty on October 2nd.

"It appears that a few hundred bankers have brought the country to its knees, and that the tax payer will have to pick up the bill," Deputy McGrath said, demanding that "the minister [for Finance] must provide detailed assurances to TDs at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meeting in Athlone next month".

Mattie McGrath, who was elected in 2007 for the first time and is therefore a 'new face' in the Dáil, added that he could "not trust the Department of Finance", given its record in dealing with the banking crisis to date.

Such clear and open words from a Fianna Fáil TD are rare, and very welcome. They show that not everyone in Fianna Fáil has lost the plot, and that there are still some government politicians with a portion of common sense left intact.

The question is how many of them are there, will their number be large enough to make a difference, and will they have the courage to stand firm, even if it could mean bringing down the government.
Should they do that, indeed, coming generations of Irish people will remember them fondly, and most of the Irish people alive would be most grateful.

Perhaps the Greens will beat the unhappy Fianna Fáil backbenchers to the post and pull the political emergency break. They will be punished by the voters for their support of Fianna Fáil anyway, if they stay in government or walk out. But if they could see their mistake of 2007 and have the guts to admit it, they might have a chance to survive as a party and - over some years - regroup and regrow again. (If they stick to Brian Cowen and Fianna Fáil until the bitter end, the Greens will most likely join the PDs as a sad footnote in political history.)

As much as the parliamentary holiday period is usually regarded as 'quiet', it is full of tensions and possibilities this year. Watch this space, and stay informed.
The Irish government is crumbling, and its days are numbered. I predict that it will not last until 2012, when the next regular general election is due to happen.

There are various elements that could end Brian Cowen's rule, from the Greens walking out to a backbench revolt in his own party.
And we should not forget the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. If the people of Ireland have the courage to follow their hearts, minds and conviction and say 'No' to Lisbon for a second time (on October 2nd), the government could collapse like a house of cards.

This would be the best thing that could happen to Ireland, and the first real step on the way out of recession and crisis.

The Emerald Islander

Green Party wobbles over third-level Fees

Ireland's Green Party has denied that it has done a U-turn on the issue of third-level education fees.

The junior partner in the current government coalition responded to an accusation from the Labour Party's education spokesman (and former Minister for Finance) Ruairi Quinn (above left), following the comments the Minister for Communication, Energy & Natural Resources (and Green Party TD) Eamon Ryan (below right) made on the RTÉ programme 'The Week in Politics'.

After a day with various conflicting statements from the Green Party, an official spokesperson at their head office said tonight that they were "still opposed to the return of fees", but that they would "look at the Minister for Education's proposals as outlined in a document for the Cabinet".

In the RTÉ interview Eamon Ryan had indicated his support for the return of third-level fees that would involve a loan scheme for students.
Under this scheme, graduates would pay back a portion of their college fees once their income is above a set limit.

The Education Minister Batt O'Keeffe (left), a staunch and quite old-fashioned Fianna Fáil politician and uncritical supporter of Taoiseach Brian Cowen, is expected to outline several options for third-level education funding shortly.

But whatever he will propose, it means a big step backwards in the national education system.
And if the Green Party is really going to support the proposal, it also means another breach of their promises to the Irish voters.

It is a long time now that the Green Party was a sensible force for change and promoter of many worthwhile alternative policies. They have sold their soul, principles and beliefs for two seats in the cabinet and a junior minister's job, and in only two years they mutated from Fianna Fáil's harshest critics to Fianna Fáil's tame poodles. What a change... and so typically Irish!

A phrase by the great satirist, Dean Jonathan Swift, comes to mind: "Any Irishman will happily sell his mother for a shilling and throw his sister into the bargain for sixpence..."

The Emerald Islander

State paid € 13.7 Million to political Parties

Latest figures from the Standards in Public Office Commission (SPOC), an independent body established in December 2001, show that the State has provided political parties in Ireland with € 13.7 million of special funding last year.

The parties shared € 5.6 million under the Electoral Acts and € 8.1 million in Party Leaders' Allowances.

In addition, each Independent TD received an allowance of € 41,000, while each Independent Senator got € 23,383.

Money from the state funding cannot be used for electoral or referendum purposes. It has to be accounted for by each party in statements to the SPOC. An exception is made for the Independent TDs and Senators, who do not have to provide Statements of Expenditure.

Last year the various Irish parties received the following sums in state funding:

Fianna Fáil - € 5 million
Fine Gael - € 4.3 million
Labour Party - € 3.1 million.
Sinn Féin - € 800,000
Green Party - € 740,000
Progressive Democrats * - € 450,00

* The Progressive Democrats (PD) are now defunct. But since they still existed last year - at least officially (although they were de facto already a dead party) - they did qualify for the annual state funding.

Latest Poll shows Labour Party gaining Support

With just one week to go to the European and local elections, the latest national opinion poll indicates that Fianna Fáil is still on course for disastrous results on June 5th.

The TNS/MRBI poll, published in today's edition of The Irish Times, shows that the Labour Party is the only party with significant improvements since the last poll a fortnight ago.

If Fianna Fáil were hoping for a late surge in support as this election campaign enters its final week, there is no sign of it so far.
The poll shows the party's support at just 20%, down one point since the last poll two weeks ago. (see my entry of May 15th)

Fine Gael are down two points, to now 36% support. But they are still by far the biggest party, and 16 points ahead of their arch rivals.

As mentioned above, Labour are the only point gainers in this poll. They are up three points to 23%, which puts them nationally in second place, after Fine Gael and ahead of Fianna Fáil.

The Green Party, which is now not much more than the outdoors and gardening department of FF, stands unchanged at 3%. This indicates that their core support still exists, but that no-one else will touch them with a barge pole.

Sinn Féin have dropped one point and stand on 8%, while Independents 'and others' (which includes Libertas) are up one point to now 10%.

However, with separate questioning - focused only on the local elections - Independents 'and others' are getting 19%, almost twice their average national support.

This is no surprise, as the amount of independent candidates or smaller parties and groups (such as the Socialist Party, the Workers' Party, the Socialist Workers' Party and 'People before Profit') is very different from one constituency to the next.*
And it is of course in the nature of independent candidates that each one of them has a different personality and thus will appeal to the electorate in a different way.

Overall satisfaction with the Irish government is - surprisingly - up slightly, but by only two points to a still disastrous 12%. The vast majority of the Irish electorate - now 84% - remains dissatisfied with the government's shambolic performance.

Satisfaction with the Taoiseach is also up - by three points - but at 21% he still has the lowest satisfaction rating of all party leaders. (He is even beaten into last place by his coalition partner, as the Greens' leader John Gormley comes in on 25% support.)

Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore retains the nation's highest satisfaction rating, with now 49%, which is two points lower than his amazing 51% a fortnight ago.

The Emerald Islander


* For example: The Socialist Party and the Workers' Party are both nominally parties with a nation-wide attitude and ambition. And they both have members in different parts of the country.
However, regarding actual strong support and thus any chances for electoral success, the Socialist Party is limited to the northern half of Dublin (city and county), while the last - and currently only - Irish constituency with elected representatives from the Workers' Party (which was founded as a break-away group from the old Sinn Féin) is Waterford City.

Are the Greens waking up after all?

The leader of Ireland's Green Party has declared that the 'Programme for Government' his party signed when going into coalition with Fianna Fáil in 2007 "needs to be renegotiated in the light of the collapse of the Economy".

John Gormley (left), who took over the party leadership from Trevor Sargent after the Greens joined Fianna Fáil, said that "the government has to re-examine its priorities, given the recent economic downturn".

I wonder if this is the same John Gormley who said only a week ago in a long interview with RTÉ Radio 1 that "within the next two years we should see a turnaround in the Economy". (see my entry of May 10th)
Can such strong optimism really disappear so quickly from a seasoned politician and minister? Or is there something - or someone - else that is changing John Gormley's mind?

It seems there is, and his name is Dan Boyle (right). The Green Party chairman, who was made a Senator and Deputy Leader of the Seanad (by Bertie Ahern) after losing his Dáil seat in Cork in the 2007 elections, has in recent weeks become a voice for change and reflection.
A late convert to reality, perhaps, but Dan Boyle is no fool. Many - in his party and outside - regard him as "the only Green politician who understands money", and over the years he has done a lot behind the scenes to make his party more efficient.
Nevertheless Boyle was also one of the 'realos' who supported the move into government and helped negotiate the coalition agreement. So it is quite significant that Dan Boyle now says: "It is time for the [Green] party to rethink the programme for government agreed with Fianna Fáil."

Looking for an Exit Strategy?

He states that there are "too many unresolved issues, policy errors that are not been admitted, and areas where responsibility has not been taken".
A number of government policies had been "disastrous", including "the light touch regulation of the financial sector and excessive salary arrangements in many areas including political life".
According to Senator Boyle, these policies had "not been Green Party policies", and the mistakes needed to be confronted.
Everything had "changed utterly" since the 'Programme for Government' had been agreed, and it was "a document now in need of review".

In a recent statement Boyle proposed that "the deal should be reviewed in the period after the June elections", adding that "it is now clear that the conduct and performance of the government will be the issues that dominates the local and European elections".

These remarks from the Green Party's chairman represent further distancing from Fianna Fáil as that party's ratings continue to plummet and are bound to be interpreted as a sign that the Greens are beginning to think in terms of an exit strategy.

I presume Senator Boyle has been out canvassing lately, and the reactions he got from local people on their doorsteps might well have opened his eyes and mind.
Even though he has not even a remote chance to win a seat, Corkman Boyle is the Green Party candidate for the European Parliament in the Southern constituency. He put a brave face on when he announced his candidacy a few months ago, but now reality is catching up with him.

The brave face has disappeared, at least from his campaign material. I just saw the first large election poster of him, tied to a lamp post not a hundred yards from my house. And I was quite surprised by what I saw. There is no smile, and not even the slightest bit of friendly expression. Boyle looks very grim, annoyed and grumpy*.
If it were not clear that it is an election poster, one might assume the photo depicts a man who suffers heavily from painful haemorrhoids and has just been told that he is at the bottom of a six-months waiting list for his operation.

"Brian Cowen is a real Pain in the Arse..."

Perhaps the nearly two years the Green Party has been sitting on the government benches now have indeed produced a number of severe political haemorrhoids for its members. At least one of the Green TDs (whose request not to be named here I respect) feels the pain every time he sits down in Leinster House.
"Bertie [Ahern] was quite bearable and always relaxed," he told me some weeks ago. "But Brian Cowen is a real pain in the arse, all the time and for everyone."

The same Green TD did not smile when I showed to him what I had written after the current government coalition was formed.
"It has often been observed that rats and other animals are jumping off sinking ships, seemingly guided by their survival instinct," I wrote in 2007. "But it must be the first time that a group of creatures is desperate to jump onto a sinking ship. This group was until now known as Ireland's Green Party. What it will be after their experience as ship mates of Fianna Fáil is anyone's guess."

Well, for a man who is not in the prophecy business, I seem to be able to see many things well ahead of most people and get quite a lot of them right before they happen.

Defection, Resignations and Disappointment

Ever since the Green Party entered government with Fianna Fáil, there has been a steady flow of support away from the party. Some of the people joined other parties, while the majority of disillusioned former Greens are now Independents, and some have given up politics for good.

Despite frequent denials from the Green Party head office, the ever growing list of resignations and defections must be a concern. It would be for me, if I were in their shoes.

Having neither a realistic chance to win a seat in the European Parliament this year**, nor any hope for success in the two Dublin by-elections for the Dáil, the Green Party must naturally concentrate most of their efforts for June 5th on the local elections.

Five years ago they managed to get 18 of their members elected to various county and city councils, particular in urban areas. But they have not made much of a difference locally. And since June 2007 they were forced to defend Fianna Fáil and the government, a task very few Green activists would ever have expected to see on their to-do list.

Three of the Green councillors (which is 1/6 of the party's local representatives) have resigned and left the party between August 2008 and January 2009. And in the build-up to the local and European elections many veteran candidates and activists decided not to stand or campaign for the Green Party this time. Some just left, while others - like Brendan McCann, the long-time Green Party candidate in Waterford City - remain nominally party members, but are no longer active.

The first Green representative to bail out after the party had joined Fianna Fáil in government was Nessa Childers (left), the daughter of Ireland's former President Erskine H. Childers. She had been elected (in Blackrock) to Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council in 2004. She resigned last August, apparently for 'personal reasons', but meanwhile re-appeared on the political scene as the Labour Party's candidate for the European Parliament in the Eastern constituency.

In January two of Ireland's best-known Green politicians below Oireachtas level resigned from the party within a week. First Councillor Chris O'Leary (right), the Greens' only representative on Cork City Council, left the party with heavy criticism of its national leadership.
A few days later Clontarf Councillor Bronwen Maher (left), the only Green member on Dublin City Council, followed suit. Ms Maher, a party member for 20 years and one of the Greens' most prominent local politicians, had been very critical and outspoken for some time, especially in the wake of the October Budget.
Both Maher and O'Leary are now campaigning as Independents.

Watching the Polls

Although several opinion polls published this year saw the Green Party relatively unscathed (while Fianna Fáil dropped from one historic low point to the next), the latest TNS-MRBI poll - published in the Irish Times on Friday (see my entry of May 15th) - has the Greens on only 3%, compared with up to 7% in earlier polls. This must be ringing alarm bells in the party's head office, and so it is not much of a surprise that prominent Green politicians like Dan Boyle and even party leader John Gormley begin to voice their concerns.

Will this change anything? And will there still be enough time for a 'renegotiation' of government policies and strategies?
Somehow I doubt it. Fianna Fáil is in complete denial of Ireland's political and economic reality, and thus - in my opinion - beyond repair or reform. Only a lengthy period in opposition could perhaps restore some of the old FF spirit and the traditional values that made the party strong.

This will of course not help the Green Party. Having nailed their own colours so firmly to the Fianna Fáil mast, the Greens are now as tarnished as their larger coalition partner and people treat them with the same anger and contempt.
Quite rightly so, I think, as they carried and supported every government policy and decision, no matter how wrong, unfair, incompetent or outright idiotic it was, since June 2007.
So they are as responsible for our national crisis and the economic recession as Fianna Fáil is. And they will be punished for it by the electorate.

A Chance of Survival?

If the Green Party is interested in surviving as a political entity, and wants to rescue at least some of its ideas, identity and policies, then the only way to do this is to jump ship and leave the current coalition government as soon as possible.
In that case the party would then have three more years to prove themselves in a new 'rainbow' coalition with Fine Gael and the Labour Party. And who knows, given that we are facing great global and environmental challenges, they might actually regain some of their old supporters and even find new ones.

But all this is purely hypothetical as long as the Greens stay in government with Fianna Fáil. All talks about thinking again and 'renegotiating' the coalition agreement are futile and will lead only to more anger and aggrevation. It is way too late to patch up the damaged ship of this coalition, as it is taking in massive amounts of water and sinking fast.

There is a time for maintenance and repairs, but that needs a vessel in still seaworthy condition. Once a ship is so seriously damaged that it is not more than a hopeless wreck, abandoning ship is the only sensible action for those who want to survive, or at least want to try to survive.

It will be interesting to observe what the Greens will do, if they are really beginning to wake up to reality, or if they are now as hopelessly damaged and irrational as their coalition partner.
I think that in the second half of June we might well get some answers to these questions.

The Emerald Islander

* On this poster Dan Boyle wears a blue tie, and the spot with the usual message "No. 1" is also coloured blue, on an otherwise brightly green background. Most people who see the poster might not think much of that, but as an image consultant I take notice of such details. In general, green and blue are opposite colours that do not combine well in most designs. So why would a professional graphic designer put them together on the same poster, unless the client wants it that way?
In Irish politics green and blue are of course also the colours of the two largest parties, green representing Fianna Fáil and blue Fine Gael. (That green is also the main colour of Sinn Féin and - obviously - of the Green Party is of less signifiance here.)
I wonder if Dan Boyle's choice of colours for the election poster is a first subtle message that his party might be open to suggestions or offers from Fine Gael. If the Greens would switch allegiance, the current government would fall and Fine Gael's leader Enda Kenny could be Taoiseach. We had such a situation when the Labour Party left its coalition with Fianna Fáil in 1994 and formed a new coalition government with Fine Gael and the small Democratic Left party (which has meanwhile been absorbed into the Labour Party).
As political campaigning is a very sophisticated business these days, it would surprise me if Dan Boyle's choice of tie and the use of blue for a prominent spot on his main election poster were purely accidental.

** The one and only Green MEP Ireland ever had was Patricia McKenna, who held a Dublin seat from 1994 to 2004. She was a strong opponent and critic of the Green's partnership with Fianna Fáil as well and fought against it inside the party for nearly two years.
Having realised that the Green Party is seriously damaged, probably beyond repair, she recently ended her membership and is now standing in Dublin as an independent candidate for the European Parliament. (see my entry of May 11th)

A new Poll puts Fine Gael in a commanding Lead, and Eamon Gilmore is the most popular Politician

A new TNS/MRBI poll, published in today's edition of the Irish Times, shows the support for Fine Gael at a new all-time high of 38%.
This gives the largest Irish opposition party a 17-point lead over the main government party Fianna Fáil, which dropped by one point to 21%, its worst rating since the party was founded in 1926 by Eamon de Valera.

The poll also shows a further drop in satisfaction with the government as a whole, and in particular with Taoiseach Brian Cowen, whose personal approval rate has sunk to 18%.

In comparison, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny gets the thumbs-up from a third of the voters (33%), but the darling of the electorate is currently Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore, with an approval rate of 51%.
I cannot think of any time in the past when the leader of the third-largest party in Ireland had such a high approval rate, in fact outclassing both the Taoiseach and the leader of the majority opposition.

Rather surprisingly the Labour Party has dropped four points in public support since the last poll and now stands on 20%.

With the (European and local) election campaigns now under way, the Green Party begins to feel the pinch and to pay the price for its participation in a government coalition led by Fianna Fáil.
In today's poll the Greens are down one point to 3%, which in a football league would clearly be inside the relegation zone.

Sinn Féin, the only parliamentary party that opposed the Lisbon Treaty, remains unchanged on 9% of public support.
The numerous independents and 'others' (which still includes the new Pan-European party Libertas) are also unchanged at 9%.

Predictably Enda Kenny and members of his front bench welcomed the poll with enthusiasm, while the reaction of the Labour Party was rather mixed.

And Fianna Fáil, to no-one's surprise, is still completely in denial.
Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern (left) tried to put the massive unpopularity of his party down to "the tough decisions we have to make in these difficult times", and to an extent he is certainly right with this assessment.
But what Fianna Fáil is unable - or unwilling - to recognise is the fact that it was no-one but themselves who created this situation. Somehow FF politicians still think that they can and will get away with it (again), without losing votes on a massive scale.

Perhaps on June 6th, which is rather appropriately the 65th anniversary of D-Day, things will be a lot clearer for Ireland and our government. Just as they were for the German government on June 6th, 1944.

The Emerald Islander

44 Irish Candidates stand in European Elections

More than 500 million people in all 27 countries of the EU are entitled to vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections, which are to take place during the first week of June.

As Europe's nations have traditionally different days of the week for elections, the voting process will be spread over four days, from Thursday, June 4th to Sunday, June 7th.

Britain and the Netherlands hold elections traditionally on a Thursday, and thus they will be the first two countries to go to the European polls on June 4th.

Ireland and the Czech Republic follow on Friday, June 5th (with the Czechs extending their vote to a second day, June 6th).

Saturday, June 6th will be election day in Cyprus, Latvia, Malta and Slovakia, as well as the first of the two days set aside for the polls in Italy.

All the other 18 EU countries - two thirds of the member states with the majority of Europe's population - hold elections traditionally on Sundays. They will vote on June 7th, which is also the second polling day for Italy.

The nine 'early bird' nations - including Ireland - will have to wait until Sunday night before exit polls can be published. Then follows the counting of votes, and the results will be known during the early hours of Monday, June 8th.

Candidate nominations for the European Parliament elections closed at 12 o'clock noon today, and after the deadline had passed, it emerged that a total of 44 individuals will contest the (now) twelve EP seats allocated to the Republic of Ireland.

There are seven political parties contesting the 2009 European elections in the Republic of Ireland: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Labour Party, the Green Party, Sinn Féin, Libertas and the Socialist Party. Together they are fielding 30 party candidates in the four constituencies, and there are also 14 independent candidates. (For a complete list of all 44 Irish candidates see below, at the end of this article.)

The most remarkable among the Independents are three women: Outgoing North-West MEP Marian Harkin (left), outgoing South MEP Kathy Sinnott (centre), and the political activist and environmentalist Patricia McKenna (right), who has been a Green Party MEP for Dublin from 1994 to 2004. An outspoken campaigner for human rights, the environment and many other issues, McKenna strongly opposed her party's coalition with Fianna Fáil in 2007. For the past two years she was more and more marginalised by the new Green Party leadership and has now left the party to stand in Dublin as an independent candidate for the European Parliament.

In the outgoing European Parliament we had 13 (of the 785) seats, but since the parliamentary reform reduced the overall number of MEPs to 736 for the new five-year session, Ireland lost one seat and retains only twelve, the same amount as Lithuania (and one less than Denmark, Finland and Slovakia). With 99 MEPs Germany has the largest national contingent, and Malta - with only five MEPs - the smallest.

The Irish reduction from 13 to 12 European Parliament seats affects most strongly the Dublin constituency, which is losing one of their currently four MEPs. Like the other three European constituencies in Ireland, Dublin will from now on be a 'three-seater'.
Since the last elections to the European Parliament in 2004 there have also been significant boundary revisions which affect predominantly the North-West constituency. Once covering the province of Connaught and the three Ulster counties in the Republic, this constituency has been enlarged and now also includes counties Clare, Longford, Roscommon and Westmeath. (Thus it is the only of the four constituencies that covers territory in all four Irish provinces.)

Of the 13 outgoing Irish MEPs all but two seek re-election. The retirees are Fine Gael's veteran MEP Avril Doyle (East) and Fianna Fáil's Seán Ó Neachtáin (North-West).
The latter had originally intended to stand again and received the nomination of his party. But then, rather surprisingly, Ó Neachtáin announced only last month that he would not be seeking re-election, apparently on the basis of medical advice he received.

This puts Fianna Fáil in some unexpected extra trouble. After a frantic and secretive consultation process between the party HQ in Dublin and local activists in the constituency, the former Minister of State Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher (left) was hastily appointed as Seán Ó Neachtáin's replacement. Gallagher, currently a Fianna Fáil TD for Donegal South-West, confirmed only this morning - 15 minutes before the deadline for nominations - that he will stand for his party in the North-West, seeking election to the European Parliament.

That the party has chosen him for this task is not a complete surprise, as Gallagher had been an MEP (for the then Connaught-Ulster constituency) from 1994 to 2002 and thus knows the ropes in Brussels. (Between 1981 and 1992 he was a Fianna Fáil TD for Donegal South-West, the same constituency he represents again in Dáil Éireann since 2002.)
From 1987 to 1994 Gallagher was Minister of State for the Marine & the Gaeltacht, and between 2002 and 2004 the No. 2 (junior minister) in the Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government.
His last government position was as junior minister in the Department of Health, where he was responsible for 'Health Promotion and Food Safety'. But when Brian Cowen became Taoiseach a year ago, Gallagher was one of the Ministers of State sacked by the new leader.

Speaking on RTÉ's News at One, former Senator (and Fianna Fáil candidate for the European Parliament) Paschal Mooney said that he was "angered by the nomination of Mr. Gallagher", his party comrade, "because both Fianna Fáil candidates are based in the northern part of the constituency".
Mooney explained that when he had been selected at a convention to stand in the north of the constituency, it was to balance the party ticket, with Seán Ó Neachtáin in the south.

Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher said he was standing "for the good of the constituency" and agreed that two weeks ago he had told (the Irish language TV channel) TG4 that if both he and Mr. Mooney were to stand for Fianna Fáil then there would be no balance.

The fact that the - rather popular - Seán Ó Neachtáin is not contesting the elections after all could provide an opening for Declan Ganley, founder and leader of the new Libertas party, who is standing in the North-West.
Based in Galway, Ganley might well be able to fill the political void left by Ó Neachtáin in the southern part of the constituency, while Gallagher and Mooney are chasing the same votes in the northern part. It will therefore be interesting to watch especially the North-West over the coming weeks.

Another hot-spot will be Dublin, where the one-seat-reduction makes this EP election literally a fight for survival for the capital's four outgoing MEPs Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin), Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael), Proinsias de Rossa (Labour Party) and Eoin Ryan (Fianna Fáil).
One of them will be sacrificed on the altar of parliamentary reform, but the quite tricky question is: which one?

I will follow the developments during the campaign and share my analysis and views with you here over the next three weeks. And even though I am based in the South, my consultancy work will lead me all around the country and give me a good overview of trends and tendencies.
Only one year after the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty and with the current Fianna Fáil-led government the most unpopular in the history of the state, this year's European elections promise to be among the most interesting and most unpredictable since 1973, when Ireland joined the EEC.

The Emerald Islander

Complete List of all Irish Candidates for
the European Parliament Election 2009

DUBLIN Constituency
(10 candidates)

Senator Deirdre de Burca - Green Party
Councillor Eibhlin Byrne - Fianna Fáil
Joe Higgins - Socialist Party
Mary Lou McDonald, MEP - Sinn Féin
Patricia McKenna - Independent
Gay Mitchell, MEP - Fine Gael
Proinsias de Rossa, MEP - Labour Party
Eoin Ryan, MEP - Fianna Fáil
Caroline Simmons - Libertas
Emmanuel Sweeney - Independent

* * *

EAST Constituency
(11 candidates)

Liam Aylward, MEP - Fianna Fáil
Thomas Byrne, TD - Fianna Fáil
Nessa Childers - Labour Party
Kathleen Funchion - Sinn Féin
Paddy Garvey - Independent
Micheál E. Grealy - Independent
Mairéad McGuinness, MEP - Fine Gael
Raymond O'Malley - Libertas
Senator John Paul Phelan - Fine Gael
Tomás Sharkey - Sinn Féin
Jim Tallon - Independent

* * *

NORTH-WEST Constituency
(13 candidates)

Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher, TD - Fianna Fáil
Declan Ganley - Libertas
Marian Harkin, MEP - Independent
Jim Higgins, MEP - Fine Gael
John Francis Higgins - Independent
Thomas King - Independent
Councillor Pádraig Mac Lochlainn - Sinn Féin
Noel McCullough - Independent
Michael McNamara - Independent
Paschal Mooney - Fianna Fáil
Susan O'Keefe - Labour Party
Fiachra Ó Luain - Independent
Senator Joe O'Reilly - Fine Gael

* * *

SOUTH Constituency
(10 candidates)

Senator Dan Boyle - Green Party
Colm Burke, MEP - Fine Gael
Brian Crowley, MEP - Fianna Fáil
Councillor Toiréasa Ferris - Sinn Féin
Senator Alan Kelly - Labour Party
Seán Kelly - Fine Gael
Ned O'Keeffe, TD - Fianna Fáil
Maurice Sexton - Independent
Kathy Sinnott, MEP - Independent
Alexander Stafford - Independent

Gormley is "happy with NAMA"

John Gormley (photo), the leader of Ireland's Green Party and Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government*, today declared that "within the next two years we should see a turnaround in the Economy".
But, according to Gormley, this will only happen "if the vision of the green economy is implemented". In other words, it is most unlikely.

Speaking at lunchtime on the This Week programme on RTÉ Radio 1, Minister Gormley also said he "believes that the fundamentals of the Irish economy are still strong enough", but that "the green vision is the only one to get us through".

Having entered government on a coalition pact with his previously worst political enemy Fianna Fáil (and on a big dream of creating a 'green government') less than two years ago, it appears that Gormley is still dreaming and either unaware of the reality, or closing his eyes deliberately, willing to soldier on until the inevitable bitter end.

John Gormley also stated that he is "happy with the establishment of the National Assets Management Agency (NAMA)".
The creation of this new agency was announced recently by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. It is supposed to take over all the bad loans and 'toxic' assets Irish banks have accumulated over the past decade of financial madness and recklessness. Nobody knows if this concept will work, and even less what the experiment will cost Irish taxpayers.
Numerous economists have pointed out that a full nationalisation of all Irish banks - and even if it is only for a limited period of time - would be a much better and safer solution, and certainly cost the state a lot less.
But once again the government has made up its mind and is now pressing ahead, regardless if the action makes any sense or not.

It is worth to remember that John Gormley is not an economist. Before entering full-time politics he worked as a language teacher, which is an honourable profession, but does not make one an expert on the Economy.
But since there is not a single economist among Ireland's government ministers, almost everyone of them is lately developing into some kind of self-appointed armchair analyst of the Economy. John Gormley is only the latest among his colleagues to come out with statements on economical matters.

The purpose of all this is to give the Irish people the impression that the government knows what it is doing, and that all is not so bad after all. In 26 days the nation will go to the polling stations and elect 13 Members of the European Parliament and all local Councillors in Ireland's counties and cities. On the same day there are also two by-elections for Dáil Éireann in Dublin, caused by the deaths of the former TDs Seamus Brennan (Fianna Fáil) and Tony Gregory (Independent).
Going by recent opinion polls, the two government parties (Fianna Fáil and Green Party) can expect a hammering on all levels, as there has never been so much dissatisfaction with an Irish government since the foundation of the state.

So John Gormley's attempt to talk up the Economy on national radio, less than a month before election day, has only one purpose: to win votes for his disintegrating party, which has lost two sitting City Councillors (in Dublin and Cork) and several long-established candidates and activists recently.

It won't work, and being an intelligent man, John Gormley must know it. But since he has chosen to be First Mate on a sinking ship, he just keeps going and pretending.
Having supported the Green Party myself for many years, I feel in a personal way sorry for him. However, he made his choice, and he will get the public's reaction for it. Had he even a little bit of green spirit and honesty left, he and his two colleagues would resign from the government and with that trigger an early general election. This is what Ireland really needs urgently, as only a new government would have a chance to lead us out of the current crisis. Every day the present administration stays in office is another black and wasted day for Ireland, and especially for our failing Economy.

The Emerald Islander

* Ireland must be the only country in the world that has - traditionally - no Department (or Ministry) of the Interior. Thus most of the functions of a Department of the Interior are handled here by the Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government. However, the responsibility for the Police (in Ireland called the Garda Siochana) is not included and instead part of the Department of Justice.