21 September 2008

Bad Prognosis for UK Labour Party

A mass opinion poll of marginal seats, published today, suggests the Labour government in Britain would suffer a crushing defeat at the next general election, if it took place next week.
The Conservatives would be returned to power with a Commons majority of 146, while eight members of the current Cabinet would lose their seats.

The poll, conducted for the political website PoliticsHome.com, suggests the Labour Party would lose seats it has held since World War I and could take a decade or more to recover from such a political bloodbath.
Perhaps not the Sunday headlines Prime Minister Gordon Brown likes to wake up to, and not the best news to appear during the annual Labour Party conference.

However, this is only an opinion poll, and thus theory. Polling, as many of the survey companies had to learn in the past, is not an exact science. A separate poll by ComRes shows Labour actually enjoying a 'bounce' at the expense of the Tories, following Gordon Brown’s intervention in the economy. That survey suggests the Tory lead over Labour has been cut by nearly half, from 21 points to 12.

These British polls coincide with the latest Red C poll in today's Sunday Business Post, which has Fianna Fáil dropping 10% (four points) from their pre-holiday position of 40%, leaving them on 36% of public support. (for details see my entry from yesterday)

But, as a veteran TD told me in Dáil Éireann before the summer: The only poll that really counts is the one on polling day.

The Emerald Islander

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