The most depressing Day in the Year

This morning someone on the radio made the remark that January 19th is - apparently - "the most depressing day in the year". How they come to that conclusion I do not know, and it was not really explained on the programme either. These days many radio presenters have the habit of throwing in comments, remarks and statements that they have neither researched nor cross-checked.
On the other hand, there are countless statistics nowadays, about anything and everything. So it is quite possible that there is such a statistic and that it puts a black mark on this day - January 19th.

Whatever is the case, the stock brokers in Dublin must have been listening to the programme this morning. And they took it very seriously and decided to contribute to the day appropriately. Subsequently the value of Irish bank shares has dropped to another all-time low.
As I write this, shares in Allied Irish Bank (AIB) dropped by almost 52% to 70 cents, after slumping as much as 60% earlier. Bank of Ireland is down now 20% to 60 cents per share, which is already a recovered value from earlier falls of 47%. And Irish Life & Permanent, who own the permanent tsb bank, tumbled 32% to € 1.49.

Today's falls come in the wake of market suggestions that Bank of Ireland and AIB look unlikely to be able to raise extra cash from private investors to top up a proposed state investment in the banks.

It appears that a statement I made on the BBC's "Any Questions?" programme more than seven years ago was quite correct, and every day this becomes more obvious to everyone.
What I said - back in September 2001, shortly after the airborne terror attacks on New York and Washington - was this:

"It becomes quite clear that conventional capitalism as we know it does no longer work. There are people on this planet who - for whatever reason - no longer want to live and work, inspired by the chance to gain wealth and personal comfort, but prefer instead killing themselves, if they can do serious damage to the capitalist system in the process. This means that no business and no organisation that follows the traditional capitalist system alone will be save and successful in future."

There might well be people who heard my statement then and made changes to their lives and to their business, as I did myself. But the vast majority did not. In fact, here in Ireland the small class of really wealthy people took no notice of it at all, as they have never listened to anyone 'on the outside' ever. They just think that their wealth gives them complete immunity from the rest of the world.
For the past ten years they created an artificial bubble of social and financial illusions that puts the well-known story of The Emperor's New Clothes well into the shadows. In the process they have not only done great damage to themselves and their companies, but to the Irish nation as a whole. Now chicken are coming home to roost on an almost daily basis, and there is for now no end in sight.

As this is supposed to be "the most depressing day in the year", I will oblige and make another statement on this matter.
Not only does conventional capitalism as we know it no longer work in the face of fundamentalist terrorism that has no concern for human lives, it does also no longer work in a globalised world that allows banks to create and gamble with artificial money that does not exist, never will exist, and has no relation to any real values.

For thousands of years people used raw materials, produced something other people wanted, and sold it to them for a price higher than the costs of production. That way they made a profit, and this is the core of old-fashioned capitalism.
Nowadays more and more manufacturing - even the production of the most basic goods - is "outsourced" to low-wage economies, mostly in the Far East. Meanwhile here in the West our apparently so bright and clever people find it more suitable to concentrate on 'financial services', which means in plain English gambling with other people's money and getting paid huge bonuses for it, just like in any casino in Las Vegas. What they really are is not bright and clever at all, but greedy and stupid

If we keep this up and do not learn our economic lessons very quickly, capitalism in any form will cease to exist. Private enterprises and public services alike will collapse, and Ireland - together with many other countries, especially in the English-speaking world - will encounter a period of absolute anarchy, violence and destruction. What ever will emerge from that after some time is anyone's guess and unpredictable, even for someone with a good track record of correct predictions.

There is still time to get things right, but not a lot of it is left. Money and time are literally running out for Ireland. The only way to turn things around is a radical change of direction, under a strong leadership.

Well, perhaps that researcher quoted on the radio this morning was right after all and this is the most depressive day of the year...

The Emerald Islander

The West awakes and rejects Budget Cuts

It appears that the Irish government has very few friends and supporters left for its outrageous policies and in particular for the shambolic 2009 Budget it presented more than a month ago.

Ireland's farmers, who have in the past always been a strong bulwark for Fianna Fáil and were subsequently awarded with generous - and often even over-generous - grants, subsidies and compensations, are turning now in droves against their former champions as well.

This is quite a change from the last minute change of mind they had earlier this year, when they joined the YES camp for the Lisbon Treaty shortly before the referendum, after having been against the treaty for months before.
But things have changed since June, and we are living under quite different conditions now. The farmers - like almost everyone else - are feeling the pinch of economic recession and financial instability. And - with all respect - Ireland's farmers have always known on which side their bread is buttered. So now they are joining in ever larger numbers the majority and call a spade a spade, or - in this case - the government for what it is: incompetent, arrogant and not up to the job of leading the country.

The growing anger in the farming community is especially strong in the west of Ireland, which is still an agricultural area with very little industry and infrastructure. Having lived in the west myself for some time, I know these farmers. They are very sturdy, conservative people, slow to anger and mainly interested in getting on with their own business.
But once they begin to grumble, pick up placards and go to demonstrations, they really mean it and will not sit down quietly again until their grievances are addressed and their problems are solved.

Today more than 5000 of them gathered in Carrick-on-Shannon, Co. Leitrim, outnumbering the local population of this small county town.
They are concerned and annoyed, feel betrayed and were sending the government a clear and unmistakeable message. "The West rejects 25% cuts" was written on thousands of placards they carried. It was in fact like a sea of messages, but they all said the same and showed a unity seldom seen in that part of the country.

Addressing the gathering, Padraig Walshe (right), the outspoken president of the Irish Farmers' Association (IFA) accused Fianna Fáil of "forgetting their roots and letting down the west of Ireland".

The IFA estimates that the 2009 Budget measures will cost farmers in the west and north-west of Ireland nearly € 40 million.

Since the Budget was announced on October 14th (see my entry of that day), farmers have been holding meetings all over the country to voice their anger over cuts in investment programmes and in retirement and some livestock schemes.

The IFA is accusing the government of taking the easy option by cutting the income of farmers on marginal land, mainly in the west of Ireland.

Padraig Walshe said that "cuts in the suckler welfare and the disadvantaged areas schemes are a direct attack on the viability of low-income farmers".

As things are, we can expect more meetings like this and more demonstrations - by farmers and many other people - in Dublin. One wonders how long it will take for the government to realise that they have really messed up everything and that it is time to go and let better people govern the country.

The Emerald Islander

No one dares to challenge China

Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown has just returned from his first official visit to China. The main reason for the trip - and main subject of his talks with Chinese officials - was, to no one's surprise, trade.
We (the developed countries of the West) have meanwhile reached a point where about 85% of our normal consumer goods are manufactured in China. Most toys are produced there, too, and a large proportion of books published in the English language are printed and bound in China.

This has led to the strange situation that we are more and more dependent on China, while the Chinese government swims in billions of Dollars, Pounds and Euros, not really knowing what to do with it. Recently a new economic development office was opened by China's President Hu, and the director of this office was given the sum of $ 200 billion as starting capital. More might be at his disposal later, and he has the task to invest this money in suitable projects and industries in the West.
In a few years we might find ourselves in the situation that we are not only completely dependent on China for our household goods, books and toys, but that China also holds and controls significant stakes in our remaining industries and institutions. Not one person in political power in the West today seems to see the potential danger this entails.

And none of our political leaders dares to raise his (or her) voice to challenge China on the issue of Human Rights. It is no secret that - despite a complete turn-around in economic policy - the People's Republic is still a Communist state with severe restrictions on freedom of speech, expression and many other human rights. China's prisons are full of various kinds of dissidents, and many of them are forced to provide slave labour for factories that produce goods for the Western market. None of our politicians and leading businessmen takes any notice of that, despite regular and meanwhile numerous reports compiled by Amnesty International. We are deliberately closing our eyes and minds to the facts of modern China and her human rights' abuses, just as the West closed eyes and minds to the (well known) facts of the Third Reich and its treatment of Jews and political prisoners.

We are sleep-walking into a massive spider's web and enable the building of an economic monster even Dr. Frankenstein would not have dared to create. And this does not even take into account the position of Taiwan, which could well be the trigger for a massive war between China and the USA in the foreseeable future. It amazes me how little our leaders have learned from History.
So far any free and democratic society that has tolerated and supported an oppressive and totalitarian regime had eventually to pay for that mistake in blood, gold and many other commodities. There is still time to re-think our policies towards China, but with every day, every ship full of goods made in China, and every trade delegation visiting Beijing the room for free movement and decisions is getting smaller.

The Emerald Islander