Showing posts with label presidential elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential elections. Show all posts

22 May 2009

5000 Americans

Today, at precisely 1 pm Irish summer time, the special software installed on this site registered the 5000th individual visitor from the USA.

Ever since I began writing this weblog almost 17 months ago, Americans have provided the largest proportion of visitors and readers. This is probably not so surprising, as the internet began in the USA and a very large number of Americans use it on a daily basis.

But since most of my entries are about Ireland, it is perhaps a little exceptional that they find such interest in the USA. Although there are approximately 45-50 million Americans who have Irish ancestry, I am sure that not all my American readers have a direct personal connection with the Emerald Isle.

Maybe the fact that I look at the world as a whole from time to time, and comment extensively on global political developments - including the USA - is attracting so many American readers.

Especially last year, during the long presidential election campaign, I wrote many pieces about the candidates from both major parties, right from the start of the 'primaries' in January. And I take a little pride in the fact that - using my skills as a political analyst - I was able to predict the final candidates (Barack Obama & John McCain) as well as the correct election result at an early stage of the 'primaries'.

I also managed - after several weeks of intensive research - to establish that Sarah Palin was not a 'surprise candidate', pulled out of John McCain's hat just a few days before the Republican Convention. I documented in detail that she was quietly selected and built-up as a potential vice-presidential candidate by the right-wing neo-cons of the Republican Party even before John McCain declared his own intention to become a candidate for the White House. (see my entry of October 26th, 2008)

This was quite a scoop for me, a single blogger without staff or professional research facilities, and a number of major newspapers that did not find the truth about Sarah Palin by themselves (despite their staff and research facilities) were happy to take this exclusive story from me.

And to round up my coverage of the presidential election, I stayed up all night (from November 4th to November 5th) and live-blogged the development and incoming results, declaring Barack Obama's victory about an hour before the major US television networks did the same.

As I have a great interest in the USA and all American political developments, I will continue to write about them whenever it is appropriate and I find the time.

I like to take this opportunity to thank the 5000 Americans who have taken the time to visit this weblog and read my entries. I hope you find them interesting and informative, and I will do my best to keep up the standard I have established so far.
Please share the information you find here with your family, friends and colleagues, and always feel free to leave comments. They are as much appreciated as your visits to this site.

The Emerald Islander

05 November 2008

US 2008: Democrats also control Congress

Several hours have now passed since my last post. After staying up all night, analysing and commenting as events were unfolding, I allowed myself a few hours of rest.

Returning to the computer I noticed that my earlier prediction came through and the Democrats are now also in full control of both Houses of the United States Congress.

Meanwhile 427 of the 435 congressional districts that elect the members of the House of Representatives (where the majority is 218) have declared a result. 254 Democrats and 173 Republicans have been elected.
This means that so far - with another 8 districts to declare - the Democrats have increased their 2006 majority (of 233) by another 21 seats, while the Republicans have so far lost 29 seats compared with the 202 they held in the last Congress.

In the Senate 33 (of the 100) seats were up for election, and with four results - from the states of Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota and Oregon - still pending, the Democrats have extended their 2006 majority (of 51) by another five Senators to now 56, while the Republicans have just 40 confirmed Senators in the new Congress.
Going by the currently available numbers, it looks as if three of these four Senate seats (from Alaska, Georgia and Oregon) will go to the Republicans, while the result of the Senatorial election in Minnesota will be recounted.

In the first count the incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman (right) polled 1,211,632 votes, while his Democratic challenger Al Franken (below left) received 1,211,167 votes.
This gives Coleman a narrow lead of only 435 votes, while a third candidate - the independent Dean Barkley - polled a total of 437,377 votes.
According to political sources in Minnesota, it "could take until December" before the final result for this contest is verified.

As things stand, this means that the Democrats will have a comfortable majority in the Senate, as well as in the House, but will not reach the 60 Senators needed for an absolute control, which could overrule so-called 'filibuster' actions (where a single Senator from either side could block a decision by non-stop talking for hours and hours). This rarely used arcane practice, modelled on a similar tradition in the Senate of ancient Rome, still exists in the USA, whose political system is still the same as it was when the Republic was founded in 1776.

In the presidential election, which was well and clearly won by Senator Barack Obama shortly before 4 am GMT, three states - Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina - had not declared a result by the time I last reported on it here. All three are so-called 'battle-ground states' and were won by George W. Bush with clear majorities four years ago. But this time the results in all three are extremely narrow, which means recounts and clarifications before a final result can be published.

Meanwhile Indiana has declared, and its eleven votes in the Electoral College go to Barack Obama, who won the states with 1,367,264 (or 50%) of the votes, while John McCain received 1,341,101 (or 49%). This result shows how hard the campaign was fought, and how close to each other win and loss can be. In Indiana's case the winning margin was 26,163 votes.

While I write this, counting and re-counting is still going on in Missouri and North Carolina. Without these two last undeclared states, the balance in the Electoral College stands now at 349 for Barack Obama to 163 for John McCain.

According to the available numbers Barack Obama has a lead of 13,093 public votes over John McCain in North Carolina, while McCain has still a lead of 5,868 public votes over Obama in Missouri.
Republicans
have carried North Carolina in nine of the last ten presidential elections, usually by comfortable margins. George W. Bush won the state by a 13-point margin in 2000 and by a 12-point margin in 2004.

Missouri
is the USA's ultimate bellwether in presidential elections. It has voted for the winning candidate in all but one presidential election for the last 100 years. George W. Bush carried the state twice, most recently in 2004 by a comfortable 7-point margin.


Should there be no new developments, it looks as if North Carolina with 15 electoral votes will be won by Barack Obama, while Missouri with 11 electoral votes will go to John McCain. That would bring the balance in the Electoral College to a final result of 364 to 174.

Even though the President is elected by the members of the Electoral College, which represent the 50 states, the public vote is always a good indicator for the overall tendency of the electorate. Looking at the numbers of the public vote, they give the same message as the numbers for the Electoral College.
Barack Obama received 63,685,576 public votes (or 53%) nationwide, while 56,280,666 people (or 46%) voted for John McCain. This means that Ipsos is the only of the 12 main polling organisations that got the result exactly right, while several others came close.

Interesting also is the high turn-out for the elections, which was 64%, the highest percentage in an election since 1960, when the Democratic Senator John F. Kennedy was elected President in a similar public surge for change as we saw it yesterday.

The Emerald Islander

US 2008: It's a Landslide for the Democrats

The 2008 US elections are over. Senator John McCain has just given his concession speech in Arizona, and it was one of the best speeches he ever made. It was decent, honest, fair and without any trace of bad feelings. The old man who did his best to win the White House acknowledged freely that he was beaten by a far superior opponent, and he pledged his full support to "his new President".

This was a great finish to a rather mediocre campaign, and for the first time in six months I recognised the old John McCain we knew for many years, the Senator of sincerity and great bi-partisan attitude. It seemed to me that in the moment of defeat he was freed from the shackles of his right-wing campaign team, from the pressure of Steve Schmidt and the shadow of Karl Rove. In defeat John McCain returned to his roots, and I salute him for this as a fellow naval officer.

Meanwhile the results from numerous US states have been coming in, and it is now without any doubt that Senator Barack Obama is the President-elect and will become the 44th President of the USA on January 20th of next year.

As I write this, the balance in the all-important Electoral College stands at

333 for Barack Obama to 155 for John McCain.

This means that Barack Obama has not only won the required majority of 270 votes in the Electoral College, but that he has already bypassed it by 63 votes (with possibly more to come).

This is not just a win, it is a landslide, as some analysts had predicted it during the past three weeks. Barack Obama achieved this massive success by winning several of the crucial so-called 'battleground states', including seven states that fell to the Republicans four years ago: Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and - most crucially - Florida and Virginia.

We all remember with sadness and anger the electoral fraud the Republicans under Governor Jeb Bush - younger brother of George W. Bush - committed in Florida in the year 2000, thus depriving the true election winner Al Gore of his right to become President.
And in the case of Virginia history has truly been made tonight, as this state had not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, when it went to President Lyndon B. Johnson.

Meanwhile the Democrats have extended their majority in the Senate by five, with now 56 Democrats to 40 Republicans (out of 100 Senators) declared elected to the upper house of the US Congress.

In the race for the 435 seats in the House of Representatives (where the majority is 218) so far 351 electoral districts have declared a result. Elected are by now 214 Democrats and 137 Republicans. This means that the Democrats are now only four seats away from a total majority in both houses of Congress. These four will come soon, and likely a good few more.

A truly massive landslide for the Democrats, indeed, and a night in which hope for a better and fairer future has been restored to the USA.

The Emerald Islander

US 2008: Barack Obama wins the White House!

With 15 more states closing their polls, a clearer picture emerges now. And even though it is still early in the night, I am confident enough to call this presidential election for the Democrats, which means that the 44th President of the USA will be Senator Barack Hussein Obama.

He will only be the second President from the state of Illinois, following in the footsteps of his great inspiration, the first Republican President Abraham Lincoln.

As I write this, the balance in the all-important Electoral College stands at

194 for Barack Obama to 69 for John McCain.

This means that Barack Obama needs only a further 76 votes in the Electoral College to become President. With the western seaboard still voting, this should be an easy task, as California alone has 55 delegates. And California has been called for Obama long before the election even began.

Meanwhile the Democrats have extended their majority in the US Senate by one, with now 52 Democrats to 35 Republicans (out of 100 Senators).

In the race for the 435 seats in the House of Representatives (where the majority is 218) so far 146 electoral districts have declared a result. Elected are by now 90 Democrats and 56 Republicans.

The Emerald Islander

US 2008: Early Results favour Obama

On the basis of the first declared votes from the US eastern seaboard, from Indiana and Kentucky, and from various exit polls in the eastern states a first trend in the US presidential election begins to emerge.

And what we are seeing indicates a strong performance by the Democrats and a likely success for Senator Barack Obama.

Even in traditionally right-wing Republican states in the South, which will undoubtedly go to John McCain, the percentage of public votes going to Barack Obama and the Democrats is significantly higher than in previous elections, and much larger than in the 2004 election, when the Democratic candidate was Senator John Kerry.

As I write this, the balance in the all-important Electoral College stands at

81 for Barack Obama to 34 for John McCain.

The Emerald Islander

04 November 2008

US 2008: Huge Turn-Out for the US Elections

A huge turn-out for the US presidential election and various other elections (for the whole House of Representatives and a third of the Senate) is reported from all over the United States.
Everywhere the number of people voting is significantly higher than in previous elections, and this is - as most analysts predict - positive for
Barack Obama, whose campaign has motivated and energised especially younger people to come out and vote.

State-wide voting in the US eastern time zone opened at 6 am (11am GMT), with Kentucky and Indiana the first polls to close, at 11 pm GMT.

Senator Barack Obama voted early in his adopted home city of Chicago, Illinois (photo left), while Senator John McCain cast his vote in his home state of Arizona, before going on another desperate last-minute tour to motivate yet undecided people to vote for him. If this tireless effort will help him to close the gap he has to Barack Obama in all of the opinion polls (see my earlier entry) is however doubtful.

The last area to close voting, at 6 am GMT tomorrow morning, will be the Aleutian Islands & St. Lawrence Island in Alaska.

However, if exit polls are reliable, it is likely the outcome of the presidential election will be known long before then, at the latest when California, the last major state, ends voting at 4 am GMT.

Following their tradition, the tiny New Hampshire towns of Dixville Notch (photo right) and Hart's Location voted already just after midnight local time (5 am GMT) and were the first two precincts in the USA to report a result. Senator Obama won a majority in both places.

The final Gallup daily tracking poll before the election day said that Barack Obama is leading the presidential race with 53% to 42% for John McCain.

There are eleven other official candidates for the presidency, the most prominent of whom is Ralph Nader, a consumer and green issues advocate, who is standing in a presidential election for the fourth time.

Eleven states will also vote to elect governors, and partial elections are being held for the US Congress.
Democrats held 236 of the 435 seats in the outgoing House of Representatives and 51 of the 100 Senate seats. 33 of the Senate seats are up for election or re-election this year.

Eleven states also vote on various referenda on State law, several of them concerning so-called 'gay marriages' and restrictions on abortion.

One of the first states to come under the lime light of the US and international media will be Virginia, which has in the past voted strongly Republican, but has been heavily targeted by the Democrats this year. As both candidates will need to win Virginia in order to secure a majority in the Electoral College, the result from George Washington's home state will be an early indicator how things are going.

I will be up all night, monitoring the incoming results, and analyse what is happening.
So if you are also staying up, you are welcome to look in here from time to time for comments and updates.

The Emerald Islander

Barack Obama leads in all Opinion Polls

As the people of the United States are casting their votes today, the various media and polling organisation have come out with their predictions. And although they vary in details from one poll to the next, they have one thing in common: Senator Barack Obama is leading in every one of them. Here is a list of the most popular US pollsters and their predicted results for the presidential race:

ABC....................Obama 53%......McCain 44%
Battleground.....Obama 50
%......McCain 44%
CBS.....................Obama 51%
......McCain 42%
Diageo................Obama 50%
......McCain 45%
FOX....................Obama 50%
......McCain 43%
Gallup................Obama 55
%......McCain 44%
IBD.....................Obama 48
%......McCain 43%
Ipsos..................Obama 53
%......McCain 46%
Marist................Obama 53
%......McCain 44%
NBC/WSJ...........Obama 51%
......McCain 43%
Rasmussen........Obama 52
%......McCain 46%
Zogby.................Obama 51
%......McCain 44%

On average this means 51.4% for Barack Obama, and 44.0% for John McCain. Although there is of course always a certain margin of error, the tendency seems to me too clear to be contradicted, no matter how load Senator McCain shouts and sputters.

It was interesting to listen to the last public speeches of both candidates. While
Barack Obama was careful, composed and just reminded everyone a last time of the importance of election day, John McCain was raving like mad, shouting at the people that they would "fight and win". Maybe Senator McCain knows nothing else but war and fighting, but the world around him has moved on. What the USA - and the whole planet - want now is peace, growth and prosperity.

Not surprisingly my own opinion poll here on Views from the Emerald Isle is also showing a clear lead for Barack Obama. This poll has been running since the early summer, and at first the two candidates were neck-to-neck for quite some time. On several days John McCain even went into the lead, but never for long. However, there was a clear shift in opinion over the past four weeks. Since the great crash on Wall Street, with the US economy coming close to total breakdown and taking much of the world with it, there have been hardly any votes for Senator McCain. Thus Senator Obama gained a comfortable lead, which - as the poll closed on October 31st - was:

Obama 68% ------- McCain 22.5%
(with 9.5% thinking that someone else would win the election).

It appears that a majority of my readers is more on the liberal side, and that Bill Clinton's 1992 slogan - It's the economy, stupid - still has a lot of clout.

The Emerald Islander

03 November 2008

Open Letter to America

For many years one of my joys was the weekly 'Letter from America', written by the great Anglo-American journalist Alistair Cooke and broadcast by the BBC for more than 58 years (until his death in March 2004). Today I am taking the liberty of sending a letter of my own in the opposite direction, and I hope you will read it with some interest.


Open Letter to the People

of the United States of America



Greetings!

Tomorrow you are called to elect a new President, as well as a new House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. This is a very important day for all of you, but this time it is even more important than many similar election days in the past.

Tomorrow you will have an exceptional choice which goes far beyond the people you will elect. In the elections tomorrow you will stand at the crossroads of history and have the unique chance to choose the future for your country, yourself, your children and even the yet unborn.

Let me explain what I mean. For most of my lifetime (I am 51) the USA were the shining beacon for most of the world. Almost everyone looked at you with a mix of admiration and envy, and most people considered themselves as friends of America. The USA were seen as the natural friend of the free and democratic countries around the globe, and we embraced your music, culture, films, fashion and food.
We welcomed you as tourists to our countries, and many millions of us became tourists in the USA. There were - and still are - in fact many more Europeans visiting the USA than Americans visit Europe and the rest of the world. We also supported you politically, and many countries - especially those in NATO - added their military support as well. This even went on without great problems when you made the wrong choices and embarked on political and military adventures - like the Vietnam War - that we did not see as wise and did not support directly. But even then you remained our friends, and we had a lot of time and admiration for you and your achievements.

Personally I remember to be glued to my little transistor radio in 1969 (then aged 12) when the first US astronauts landed on the Moon. Six years later I joined the Navy and for the next two decades I served not only my own country, but also NATO and the common defence of the free world, led by the USA.
During those years I met many Americans and served along them in integrated multi-national commands. I visited many of your naval bases and cities, gave guest lectures in some of your universities (including Princeton), and had even lunch once with the then President Ronald Reagan.
Later I also met his predecessor Jimmy Carter, a former naval officer like myself and a most charming, decent and kind man for whom I have great admiration.
And in all those years I would never have thought that the USA could become a country of evil, which I despise and turn against.

But everything changed eight years ago, when Al Gore won the presidential election, but was ousted in a bloodless coup d'etat by the Bush family, supported by the Republican Party, a large conglomerate of oil barons, energy companies and arms manufacturers, and - eventually - the US Supreme Court, most of whose members had been appointed by Ronald Reagan or George W. H. Bush, the father of George W. Bush.

During the past 7 3/4 years - under the administration headed by George W. Bush - the USA have lost most of its international friends and almost all of its credibility. Under Bush and Cheney you invaded two foreign countries - Afghanistan and Iraq - which had never committed a single hostile act against the USA. Your soldiers are still occupying these countries and have committed countless war crimes and acts of cruelty against their civilian populations.
This alone has cost you much of the friendship you once enjoyed around the globe, and many people who were strong supporters of the USA - myself included - turned away from you in anger and disgust. We had no other choice, as George W. Bush said: "You are either with us, or against us." And in these illegal and immoral wars no decent person could be with you.

This also goes for your systematic and deliberate breach of human rights and international law. In your camp at Guantanamo Bay and at many other secret locations Americans imprisoned and tortured hundreds of foreign nationals, on the explicit orders of the White House. This still goes on every day, and it has made Americans the worst criminals and war criminals since the Nazis and the Japanese Kempetai in World War II.

If you like it or not, and regardless who will be the next President, you will have to live with this terrible legacy of the Bush administration. It will not be forgotten, and like Germany and Japan you will have to make massive retributions before anyone will ever see you again as a lawful and decent country. You should also bring those responsible to Justice in your own country and thus show to the world that you still have laws and order. For now the world sees you as a criminal and lawless country, with the biggest criminals of all in charge of the government.

Many of you seem to be ignorant of this change in world opinion, as you show little interest in the rest of the planet and your media are even more ignorant than you are yourself.
But make no mistake: the world has turned its back on you and sees you more and more as the real 'evil empire' that has nothing to offer now but wars, violence, brutality and crime.

All this comes on top of what the current administration has done to you in your own country. You will know that a lot better than I do, but even here - from a distance - I am well aware of the shortfalls in all areas of normal life, from education over health care to social welfare and services. What I hear from my American friends is an ever growing list of complaints about the terrible conditions under which most of the American people live now. Unless you are one of the rich or super-rich, you struggle every day to make ends meet.
To give you just one example: A friend of mine, a fellow psychologist, works for a health service organisation and earns a reasonable salary. Nevertheless this friend, who lives in a large city, has still no access to broadband service, complains constantly about crime, violence and lack of public security, and cannot afford a holiday in Europe.
This is the legacy of nearly eight years of Republican administration under George W. Bush and Richard 'Dick' Cheney.
Add to this the 'credit crunch', the 'sub-prime' mortgage scandal and the massive white-collar crimes committed by bankers and speculators on Wall Street, and you will realise that the USA are close to become a very unstable and dangerous country, drifting slowly but steadily to the edge and coming close to collapse.

Tomorrow you are asked to vote, and thus you have the choice between four years of the same, or four years that could turn around your ailing and failing country. If you vote for John McCain, an old man of 72 with a notoriously bad temper and - despite a 'war hero' status - the nickname "McNasty" in the Navy, you will see the USA deteriorating ever more - and faster - into a political and economical abyss, worse than you have experienced so far, and worse also than most of you can imagine.

Add to that the possibility that McCain - given his age and medical history - might not last the full four years. Then you would be ruled by a President Sarah Palin, a woman of no experience, very extremist political and social opinions, and even less intelligence than the already very low level George W. Bush. If that is what you want, then you have to vote Republican. But if you do, and McCain should win, do not claim afterwards that you didn't know what you did. You have been warned many times, by many people, including myself.

Instead of voting Republican, you can vote for the Democrats, and I hope you will. If you do, there is a good chance that the next President of the USA will be Barack Obama.
In many years as a political analyst and consultant I have rarely seen a politician of such great sincerity, compassion, eloquence and true natural leadership than Senator Obama.
He is certainly the most charismatic US politician since John F. Kennedy, and like JFK he has the vision and determination to make the USA a better country and the whole world a better planet.

If he is elected President, he will have a hard task, since the Bush administration leaves the USA as a wrecked, divided and almost bankrupt country, with trillions of Dollars in debt, two badly conducted, unfinished and unwinnable wars, and the lowest international credibility in all its history. Even a strong, good-willed and determined man like Barack Obama will not be able to turn the clock back before 2000 and erase the legacy of the incompetent and criminal Bush administration. It will take time and great efforts to turn the USA around, and even a lot longer to win back the support and friendship of the rest of the world.

However, one thing is certain: If anyone can do it, and restore the USA to a status of stability, decency and trust, it is Barack Obama. I wish him all the best and hope he will win tomorrow, but I do not envy him if he does. He will have the hardest job on the planet. But - like John F. Kennedy - he has the kind of personality and vision that can shift mountains and make real changes.

No such traits are visible in John McCain. The 72-year-old Arizona Senator often calls himself a 'maverick' and runs his campaign under the banner of 'change'. What kind of change? And why now? He has voted in over 90% of all legislation with the current administration, has been endorsed by both George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, and chosen as vice-presidential 'running mate' a woman who is a female version of George W. Bush, only worse and even less intelligent.

No, even if he wanted to change things, he has neither the ideas and vision, nor the power to do it. Just look at his campaign team, which is lead and managed by Steve Schmidt, an extremely right-wing Republican 'spin doctor' from the evil school of Bush's spin master Karl Rove, who still calls the shots on the Republican side from the background.
To expect change from this team would be like expecting Easter eggs from Santa Claus.

It is up to you now, voters of America. You have the choice and can make all the difference, for the USA and - indirectly - the whole world.
Yes, you have to begin to look a little more beyond your own borders, as anything that happens in the USA also affects the rest of us, regardless where we live.

Some might wonder why a man like me, who is European, lives in Ireland, is not an American, never was one, never lived in the USA and never will, is getting involved in an election that is - in a narrow perspective - none of his business and should not concern him.
Well, there are two reasons: First of all I care, for the whole of the human race, including the people in the USA, and would like to see the world in a better state than it is at present. This can only happen if there is a decent President in the White House, supported by a competent administration.
And secondly - as I already mentioned above - whatever happens in the USA has a direct affect also on every country and every person outside the USA.
Such is the modern world of globalisation and international economy, the 'global village' where we are connected over the internet and have so much more in common than our ancestors had.

I have no affiliation to any of your parties or politicians, and am a truly independent political analyst and consultant. Whatever the outcome of your elections will be, I will not have any personal benefits from it now, nor in future. But - like the rest of the world - I will be affected by it nevertheless.

So I urge you once more to be aware of the historical magnitude of tomorrow's elections, especially the presidential election, and hope you will make the right decision - in your own interest, and in the interest of a better, more peaceful and more prosperous world. As President John F. Kennedy put it so clearly: Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.

Tomorrow you have more than ever the chance to do a lot for your country. Please do!

With thanks for your time and attention, I close this letter, wish you luck and wisdom, and remain

With kind regards

The Emerald Islander

16 September 2008

Lipstick on Dogs and Pigs...!

No, this is not an endorsement of cosmetic products for animals. Not even a piece about the use of animals for the testing of new cosmetics. As an active member of the ISPCA (Irish Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals) I am against that, anyway...

This is about the ridiculous double-standards of certain American politicians, which come usually to their strongest flourish in the Republican Party during election campaigns. It is meanwhile already a tradition (even though a dishonourable one) that any candidate standing against a Republican in an election - regardless on what level - will be subjected to an orchestrated smear campaign, with lies, half-truths and twisting of facts until they creak.

So one should not be surprised to see this now happening to Barack Obama (left), the Democratic candidate for the White House. As it happens, this year there is no-one in the Republican Party who comes even near the intellect, brilliance, clarity and courage of Senator Obama. They know that, and that it would therefore be futile to mount an intellectual or serious political campaign against him.

Having no sharp swords at their disposal, the Republicans decided to select the bluntest weapons they could find, hoping that they can fool and deceive the American voters again (as they did so successfully in 2004).
And once again the evil schemer Karl Rove (right), supported by his adlatus Steve Schmidt (who is John McCain's campaign manager) rolls out his tricks in the backroom.

Having forced McCain to accept the naive and totally inexperienced, but absolutely right-wing fundamentalist and gun-toting 'Christian' Sarah Palin (left) as 'running mate', they are now re-writing the campaign script and the policy lines of their candiate. Perhaps it is his age of now 72 years that has changed the once independent and admirable maverick from Arizona, or maybe he is by now just sick and tired of it all and will agree to anything, as long as it gets him the presidency.
But the John McCain who is now the Republican candidate for President of the USA is not the same man who ran in the Republican primaries in the year 2000 against - among others - George W. Bush.

Among historians there circulates a theory that Adolf Hitler did not live until the end of the Second World War; that he was actually assassinated by dissident Wehrmacht officers in 1943. But instead of regime change or the collapse of National Socialism they expected, the show went on, because top Nazis put one of Hitler's doubles (he had and used at least two we know of) in his place. However, this double lacked certain of Hitler's abilities and thus mistakes were made from 1943 to 1945 that the real Hitler might not have made. This is a theory, as I said, and we have no positive proof for it (nor any real evidence against it). But there are plenty of elements that make it look very plausible.

John McCain (right) has also undergone a complete change, though I do not expect that he was replaced by a double. But four years ago, before the presidential election campaign of 2004, he sold his soul and political principles to the Bush clan. What exactly happened will probably be never known to the public, but I believe that McCain agreed to give up his hefty criticism of Bush and his abstruse policies in exchange for a promise by Bush and his cronies to give him a 'free run' in 2008. And like all those who sold their soul to the Devil, he is now paying the price for it. Thus a man once seen as 'liberal' - and some still think he is - now has to rub shoulders with a woman like Sarah Palin and almost play second fiddle to her egocentric ignorance!

The linguistic controversy created by Republican 'spin doctors' some days ago is quite typical for the way they fight election campaigns. Never mind substance or real issues, as long as you can grab a few headlines in right-wing papers, TV and radio stations for a day or two, it is worth a go.

The phrase "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it still remains a pig" is quite popular in the USA, widely used in all walks of life (and not just in politics). In fact, John McCain has used it several times in public, the last time referring to Hillary Clinton.
But now, that Barack Obama used it, reflecting on McCain's apparent plans to change things in Washington, even though he is the candidate of the incumbent party and has voted more than 90% in favour of Bush's policies, the Republican smear machine is trying to imply that it is an apparently "sexist" remark and aimed at Sarah Palin!

Well, only brainwashed hardline Republicans, who would vote even for a pig, as long as it stands for their party, will see it that way. Everyone with a working brain will see the reality instead.

But one should not forget what gave the Republican backroom boys the basis for their attack on Senator Obama. It was Sarah Palin herself who - at the Republican convention - declared that the only difference between a "hockey mom" (like herself) and a pit bull (terrier) was lipstick. It has been pointed out by various observers and commentators that thus she proclaimed herself to be a "bitch", without actually using the word.

There is an old saying, that those sitting in glass houses should avoid throwing stones. Well, this is such a case. Anyone with common sense will see that it was Sarah Palin who drew the slight analogy towards herself, with her own words, even though Barack Obama did not intend it.
It was the Republican Party, and not Obama, who created the image of Sarah Palin as a "pig with lipstick". And one cannot help but thinking that they actually might have a point...

Perhaps both parties should in future concentrate more on facts and the massive problems that the USA are struggling with. Regardless who will be elected in November (and I hope it will be Barack Obama), the new President will have a very difficult job on his hands. There will be no requirement for pigs, pit bull terriers or even lipstick.
Required is instead a strong character, imagination, intelligence and the will to make substantial changes to an ailing and failing country. These traits I can see only in one party: the Democrats.

The Emerald Islander

30 August 2008

John McCain's unexpected Choice

Senator John McCain, candidate of the Republican Party in this year's US presidential election, has surprised most people with the choice of his so-called 'running mate'. However, as misleading as this word - used by American politicians and media - might be, it is not for a sporting event he chose his partner, but for the White House.
'Running mate' is a popular - even though daft - substitute for the word 'Vice President'. Whoever is chosen for this position will undergo the same media scrutiny and unfair attacks from opponents as the person chosen to 'run' for President. (It is rather telling that here in Europe people 'stand' for elections, while in the USA they are 'running', as if they have to get away from something...)

Well, this entry is not really about linguistic fineries, even though language always plays a role in politics, often in various and significant ways. (Maybe I will write about the use of language in the modern political landscape at another time...)

This is about a woman called Sarah Palin. Sarah who? Yes, I did ask myself exactly that, too, when I heard the news. Even as a rather active and well-informed political analyst I had never come across the woman before, nor heard her name mentioned at all. No surprise really, as Sarah Louise Heath Palin (right), to give her full name at least once for the record, became the governor of Alaska only in December 2006.

Even though Alaska is the largest of the fifty US states by size, it only has a population of about 683,000 (a little more than Dublin City and half of the Dublin Urban Area) and hardly anything important ever happens in this remote part of the world with its subarctic climate. Most of the state is a vastness of uninhabited forests, mountain ranges and island, covered in ice and snow for many months of each year. And as about 65% of the land belongs to the federal government and is managed through its agencies, the governor has real responsibility for only a third of the state.

So, without wanting to diminish the position of the governor of Alaska, it is certainly not the most important or challenging job one could find within the political landscape of the USA. And as such also not the one that would qualify its holder easily for the overall leadership of the nation, which includes more than ever huge international responsibilities.

One has therefore to wonder why John McCain, a very experienced politician and a truly 'old hand' in Washington, chose Sarah Palin, a virtually unknown woman with extremely limited experience, as his 'running mate'. Nobody really knows, and it is not even certain if McCain made the selection himself.
Anyone 'running' for political office in the USA is now surrounded and supported by large teams of advisers, consultants and pollsters, each of which has some influence on the decisions made. It is therefore all teamwork these days, no matter who the person in front is.

During the past two months various names have been circulated within the Republican Party for the position of presumptive Vice President. John McCain met all the potential candidates and a number of them spent a weekend with him at one of his houses in Arizona. Political observers in the USA - as they do - speculated over the person most likely to be selected, but not once did the name of Sarah Palin come up. In fact, McCain only met her once before announcing his surprising choice of 'running mate'.

So why is she now the second name on the Republican ticket? What qualifies her for such a high and difficult office? And what makes her more suitable than the about a dozen people previously mentioned, most of them Republican state governors with a lot more experience?

Well, nothing really. In fact, on the basis of education, personal clout and development, political stature and the real experience of legislation, administration and leadership she is about the least qualified person I could think of. All she achieved educationally before eloping with a blue-collar oil-rig worker and part-time fisherman is a Bachelor's degree in Journalism from the University of Idaho (the state Sarah was born in before her parents moved to Alaska). She worked a short while as a sports reporter for local TV stations, but stopped that in favour of having four children and helping her husband on a fishing boat. And yes, of course, there were the beauty pageants. I almost forgot.

In 1984 the then 20-year-old Sarah Heath (pictured left) became 'Miss Wasilla', the beauty queen of her small, cold and boring home town, then a minor settlement with less than 2000 inhabitants. She moved on from that to become second in the state-wide Alaska beauty contest of the same year.
Not knowing the other contestants, it is hard to comment on this element of Sarah's career. True beauty is a rare commodity, and even more so in small communities. 'Among the blind the one-eyed is king' is a saying that comes to mind. And even the most remote places just want to have their bit of fun as well...
However, by becoming runner-up in the 'Miss Alaska' pageant, Sarah won her scholarship to the University of Idaho, also rather second-rate in the greater educational structure of the USA.

In 1992 Sarah Palin entered local politics for the Republican Party. She served four years on the town council of Wasilla, which had meanwhile doubled its size due to the oil boom. In 1996, when she was elected Mayor after a pushy and quite controversial campaign, Wasilla had almost 5000 inhabitants. (Currently the number of Wasillans is officially listed as 6715.)

After six years as Mayor, Sarah's ambitions grew and she wanted to leave small-town politics for the richer pickings of the state. In 2002 she 'ran' for the office of Lieutenant Governor of Alaska, but was beaten already in the Republican primary. Old party hands thought that she lacked the experience necessary for the job.
Four years later, after a couple of years on the Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission, Sarah came back with a vengeance and went right for the top job this time. In an unexpected and still controversial move she unseated the incumbent Republican governor (and ex-Senator) Frank Murowski and began to fight the massive corruption which her own party created over many years in Alaska and its rich oil and gas industry.

With less than two years in office, this work is far from finished. So if cleaning up Alaska and its corrupt and narrow-minded political landscape is really what Sarah Palin wants, she should have refused the offer made to her by John McCain. But - in all fairness - few would say 'no' to such an offer coming their way...

For the Republican Party the announcement came as much as a surprise as for the rest of us. It remains to be seen if it will do them any good in the main campaign and - more crucially - in the election in November.
So far a main argument of the McCain campaign was that their candidate was a vastly experienced and seasoned politician who could be trusted as leader and commander-in-chief. They portrayed Democratic candidate Barack Obama often as "too young and lacking experience", especially when it comes to foreign affairs.

Well, such argument will be a lot more difficult to use, now that McCain chose a "hockey mum" as his deputy and presumptive successor as head of state and commander-in-chief.
Compared with Sarah Palin the experience of Barack Obama is massive and clear for everyone to see. In contrast to her, he is also a highly educated man and has many years of practical work in a large and difficult community under his belt. And by choosing veteran Senator Joe Biden (of Delaware), the most experienced foreign affairs expert in Washington, as his 'running mate', Obama made up far more than necessary for his relative youth and lack of foreign experience.

Adding the fact that John McCain celebrated his 72nd birthday yesterday and would - if elected - be the oldest person ever to become President of the USA, the choice of Vice President is even more crucial than usually. Given that under the US Constitution the Vice President automatically succeeds the President on his death, anyone who would be Vice President to a President McCain would have to be able to step into his shoes at any time, should the situation arise.

John McCain had been looking for a proper second-in-command very carefully and for a long time. Before yesterday's surprise announcement, McCain's own personal preference was a man who is as much a maverick as he is himself. It was widely expected that the 'running mate' position might go to the veteran Senator Joseph Lieberman (right), a former Democrat and now - after being dropped by his own party for his support of the Iraq War - an 'Independent Democrat'. This could well have upset a number of staunch Republicans, many of which see McCain as a 'liberal' (whatever that means in an overall liberal country). But the two men are friends across the political divide for a long time and have in the US Senate worked together at various occasions with great success.

So why then the sudden change of mind and the surprise announcement Senator McCain made yesterday? Well, as mentioned above, nobody knows for sure. But what I hear from my personal contacts in the USA, the main reason is a man whose name you will not have heard before either.

He is Steve Schmidt, who on July 2nd, 2008 took over as the principal manager of the McCain campaign. Unknown to the general public, Schmidt is quite a familiar name in the fraternity of political consultants and analysts. He worked for years very closely with the demonic Republican spin doctor Karl Rove, who secured the White House for George W. Bush twice, the second time actually through a real election, which he won with massive lies and scare-mongering, shocking a large amount of right-wing 'Christian' fundamentalist with the prospect of 'gay marriages' if the Democrats would win the election. That was of course complete rubbish, but it scared enough of the rednecks and hill billies and made them vote for Bush.
Schmidt also worked as Counselor and spokesman for Bush's Vice President 'Dick' Cheney, who was - and still is - the most hard line war monger in the current administration and one of the main architects of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. (If things had gone Cheney's way, there would by now also be a war in Iran...)

It is pretty obvious that John McCain - back in 2004 - sold his political soul to the Bush camp. In exchange for stopping his maverick attacks against his own party and government, McCain was promised a free run for the presidency in 2008 (when Bush cannot 'run' any more himself). The likes of Cheney and Rove might have hoped that McCain - suffering from skin cancer and getting quite old - would probably never be able to go all the way, but now that he does, they made sure that the former free-thinker and maverick from Arizona, who was more than once on the brink of leaving the Republican Party (the last two times in 2001 and 2004), is surrounded by enough right-wing minders and advisers.

After they failed to push the Democrats to select Hillary Clinton as their presidential candidate (which would have been a great bonus for the Republicans) and Barack Obama was wise enough not to choose her as 'running mate', the right-wing strategists panicked and forced John McCain to make a clear gesture towards the fundamentalist 'Christians', rednecks, hill billies and all the other people of little brain and education who secured the election of George W. Bush in 2004.

Instead of his old friend and colleague Joe Lieberman, who is an orthodox Jew from the Eastern seaboard, McCain was cajoled by Schmidt to go for the exact opposite: a redneck woman of little brain and experience, but one who fulfills most of the requirements to appeal to that particular part of the electorate. She has no academic clout, lives 'in the wild', loves shooting, is therefore a member of the ultra-reactionary National Rifle Association, eats 'mooseburgers' (made from the meat of the moose she kills) and has a son in the Army and on the way to serve in Iraq. This is the sort of people America's brain-dead morons just love. But wait, there is more. Sarah Palin "does not believe that global warming is the result of human activity" and has vetoed that the polar bear should be put on the list of endangered (and therefore protected) species. This alone, the unbelievable amount of arrogant ignorance when it comes to the important matters of the environment, makes her a female version of George W. Bush!
Sarah Palin is - of course - also a brainwashed right-wing 'Christian' and supports the teaching of the so-called 'Intelligent Design' theory, which denies the facts of evolution and is based on the literal interpretation of the Bible as the only acceptable source for everything, including science.

Steve Schmidt and his right-wing Republican strategists are pretty certain that a woman like Sarah Palin can gain them the moron votes that John McCain would not mobilise. They also hope that by choosing a woman they might scoop up some of the radical feminist vote that supported Hillary Clinton for the sole reason of being a woman, as well as some of the Democrat blue-collar support that is not quite happy with a non-white candidate. Yes, racism in the USA is alive and kicking, and nowhere more than in the very same party that started the Civil War 147 years ago, apparently to free the negroes...

In 1984, the year young Sarah Heath became 'Miss Wasilla', the first ever woman was nominated as the vice-presidential 'running mate' of any US presidential candidate. She was Geraldine Ferraro (right), a highly intelligent, educated and experienced lawyer and politician from New York.
Walter Mondale, the Democrats' nominee, made this inspired and courageous selection, but in November of that year they lost heavily to the incumbent President Ronald Reagan (and his Vice President, the ex-CIA director George H. W. Bush, father of the current incumbent).

Now Sarah Palin (nee Heath) is heralded by right-wing media as the second woman selected as a 'running mate'. They sing her praise - even though there is little to sing - and build her up to look like a giant, just because she is a woman, unknown and a right-wing trollop. Sarah Palin is no giant. With her ignorance and her aggressive and violent lifestyle she is rather unattractive as a woman, and she is certainly no second Geraldine Ferraro!
Portraying Sarah Palin as a positive role model for women is an insult to everyone's intelligence, and in particular an affront to every feminist who fought and fights for women's rights and true equality.

Well, I am obviously no American, and thus I have no vote in November. But of course one does have opinions and preferences, even from the outside. Eight years ago, in the year 2000, when John McCain 'ran' in the Republican primaries against George W. Bush and the incumbent Vice President Al Gore - long before his rebirth as an environmentalist - tried to succeed Bill Clinton as President, I would have supported John McCain and voted for him. He was then still the clear maverick for whom decency and common sense had priority over party politics and imperialistic attitudes.
In 2004 McCain was close to start a third party, or even defect to the Democrats. There was for a while even a chance he might become John Kerry's 'running mate' on the Democratic ticket. However, something happened around this time, and John McCain was never the same again. It looks to me that he sold his political soul to Bush (as I mentioned above) and ever since he drifts more and more towards the conservative right, even supporting now positions of Bush's policy he openly attacked between 2000 and 2004.

For me the selection of Sarah Palin as his 'running mate' shows that John McCain finally has lost his maverick spirit and his independence. He is now nothing more than a willing puppet, whose strings are pulled by Steve Schmidt, just as the strings of George W. Bush were pulled by Karl Rove. So if I were American, I could no longer support McCain or vote for him. Most certainly not now, after he has hitched his wagon to a woman like Sarah Palin.
I sincerely hope that the American voters will have the right answer to the short-sighted and in many ways idiotic selection of Sarah Palin. If not, then no 'God' or anything else will help America when the inevitable downfall and disintegration comes. Let the silly woman go back to her snow, ice and wilderness, where she can play the gun-totting dominatrix. But let the USA be once again governed by people with dignity, morals, education and common sense!

The Emerald Islander