04 November 2008

Barack Obama leads in all Opinion Polls

As the people of the United States are casting their votes today, the various media and polling organisation have come out with their predictions. And although they vary in details from one poll to the next, they have one thing in common: Senator Barack Obama is leading in every one of them. Here is a list of the most popular US pollsters and their predicted results for the presidential race:

ABC....................Obama 53%......McCain 44%
Battleground.....Obama 50
%......McCain 44%
CBS.....................Obama 51%
......McCain 42%
Diageo................Obama 50%
......McCain 45%
FOX....................Obama 50%
......McCain 43%
Gallup................Obama 55
%......McCain 44%
IBD.....................Obama 48
%......McCain 43%
Ipsos..................Obama 53
%......McCain 46%
Marist................Obama 53
%......McCain 44%
NBC/WSJ...........Obama 51%
......McCain 43%
Rasmussen........Obama 52
%......McCain 46%
Zogby.................Obama 51
%......McCain 44%

On average this means 51.4% for Barack Obama, and 44.0% for John McCain. Although there is of course always a certain margin of error, the tendency seems to me too clear to be contradicted, no matter how load Senator McCain shouts and sputters.

It was interesting to listen to the last public speeches of both candidates. While
Barack Obama was careful, composed and just reminded everyone a last time of the importance of election day, John McCain was raving like mad, shouting at the people that they would "fight and win". Maybe Senator McCain knows nothing else but war and fighting, but the world around him has moved on. What the USA - and the whole planet - want now is peace, growth and prosperity.

Not surprisingly my own opinion poll here on Views from the Emerald Isle is also showing a clear lead for Barack Obama. This poll has been running since the early summer, and at first the two candidates were neck-to-neck for quite some time. On several days John McCain even went into the lead, but never for long. However, there was a clear shift in opinion over the past four weeks. Since the great crash on Wall Street, with the US economy coming close to total breakdown and taking much of the world with it, there have been hardly any votes for Senator McCain. Thus Senator Obama gained a comfortable lead, which - as the poll closed on October 31st - was:

Obama 68% ------- McCain 22.5%
(with 9.5% thinking that someone else would win the election).

It appears that a majority of my readers is more on the liberal side, and that Bill Clinton's 1992 slogan - It's the economy, stupid - still has a lot of clout.

The Emerald Islander

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