30 May 2009

Fianna Fáil are likely to lose their Dublin MEP, while Labour Party could win two extra Seats

A new opinion poll, published in today's edition of The Irish Times, suggests that Fianna Fáil is in real danger of losing its European Parliament seat in Dublin.

It shows that public support for the Fianna Fáil MEP Eoin Ryan (left) has slipped by a further two points to now 9%, while his political arch rival, Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald (right), is currently down by three points since the last poll and stands on 11%.

However, the Socialist Party's leader and ex-TD Joe Higgins (right) has gained two points and stands now on 9%, level with Eoin Ryan.
With only six days left until election date and public anger growing, Higgins could cause an unexpected upset in the Dublin constituency by winning a seat. (And if he fails, his transfers will certainly help Mary Lou McDonald a lot more than Eoin Ryan.)

The MRBI poll also indicates that the Labour Party might have a realistic chance to gain two extra MEPs.

Senator Alan Kelly (left) in the South and Nessa Childers (right) in the East are believed to benefit from the ever growing national support for Labour. The poll suggests that they are both within reach to win a seat and thus triple the Labour Party's strength in the European Parliament. (At present, Dublin MEP Proinsias de Rossa is the sole representative of his party in Europe.)

A separate TNS-MRBI poll in yesterday's Irish Times showed Labour as the only party to make significant improvements since the last poll a fortnight ago.

I wonder if these latest poll results also indicate that the general mood of the Irish electorate is slowly shifting to the Left, and if this - on the long run - could break the stagnation in Ireland's domestic political system, which has been dominated for far too long by two right-of-centre parties: Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The Emerald Islander

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